Poll Average Details- NC District 09 - Special Election - 2019-09-10 18:30:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Dan McCready	Dan Bishop	Jeff Scott	Allen Smith
co/efficient	9/6	X 1.00000		44.0000 - -1.7398 bias	44.0000 - 1.9160 bias	3.0000 - 0.8135 bias	2.0000 - 1.9537 bias
Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs	8/28	X 0.85000		49.0000 - 3.9837 bias	44.0000 - -3.3811 bias
Red Racing Horses (R)	8/28	X 0.85000		45.0000 - 0.0404 bias	46.0000 - -0.0966 bias	2.0000 - 2.0525 bias	1.0000 - 0.5375 bias
ALG Research (D)	7/18	X 0.16667	X 1/2	46.0000 - 4.2434 bias	46.0000 - -2.9971 bias
TOTAL				45.161329	45.134061	1.157770	0.237527