[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Northern League | Five Star Movement | Democratic Party | Forza Italia | Brothers of Italy | More Europe | The Left | Green Europe | South Tyrolean People's Party | New Force | Populars for Italy | Communist Party of Italy | PPA Movement | CasaPound–United Right | The People of Family–Popular Alternative | Autonomies for Europe | Pirate Party | Italian Animal Welfare Party |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

SWG | 4/29 | X 1.00000 | 31.6000 - -4.1864 bias | 21.8000 - -4.4646 bias | 22.5000 - 1.1838 bias | 8.8000 - 1.7946 bias | 5.0000 - 0.4793 bias | 2.9000 - 0.2654 bias | 3.1000 - bias | 1.5000 - bias | |||||||||||

Ipsos | 4/4 | X 0.58333 | 36.9000 - -1.5743 bias | 22.3000 - -3.8298 bias | 18.7000 - 1.3753 bias | 8.7000 - 2.7352 bias | 4.6000 - 0.5635 bias | 3.0000 - -1.3361 bias | 2.1000 - bias | 1.3000 - bias | |||||||||||

Ixè | 4/1 | X 0.53333 | 31.0000 - -6.3245 bias | 21.0000 - -3.9004 bias | 20.0000 - 3.2772 bias | 10.0000 - 4.4076 bias | 5.0000 - 0.4561 bias | 4.0000 - 1.0281 bias | 3.0000 - bias | 1.0000 - bias | |||||||||||

Noto | 3/5 | X 0.08333 | 33.0000 - bias | 21.0000 - bias | 20.0000 - bias | 11.0000 - bias | 4.0000 - bias | 3.5000 - bias | |||||||||||||

TOTAL | 36.766428 | 25.698726 | 19.094440 | 6.538248 | 4.378214 | 3.200305 | 2.799213 | 1.318898 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |