Poll Average Details- NH US Senate - 2020-11-03 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Jeanne Shaheen Bryant "Corky" MessnerBryant "Corky" Messner Bryant "Corky" MessnerJustin O'Donnell Write-In
American Research Group10/28X 1.00000   57.0000 - -0.0281 bias 40.0000 - 0.8024 bias 0.0000 - 0.7109 bias  
University of New Hampshire10/28X 1.00000   54.0000 - 2.9279 bias 43.0000 - -2.2686 bias 2.0000 - -0.0136 bias  
University of Massachusetts10/26X 0.96667   57.0000 - 1.8128 bias 38.0000 - -1.0124 bias    
Saint Anselm College10/26X 0.96667   54.0000 - 4.1557 bias 39.0000 - -3.5148 bias 2.0000 - -0.1403 bias  
Suffolk University10/12X 0.73333   51.0000 - 1.8204 bias 36.0000 - -2.3339 bias 2.0000 - 1.1462 bias  
Emerson College10/1X 0.55000   55.2000 - 1.1763 bias 40.1000 - 0.6280 bias    
TOTAL 52.794005 40.849256 1.080480 0.000000