[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Tina Smith Christopher Lovell Seymore, Sr. | Jason Lewis John L. Berman | Kevin Hartnett O'Connor | Oliver Steinberg | Write-In | Steve Carlson | John L. Berman | George A. Dennis, Jr. | Rob Barrett, Jr. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Research Co. | 11/1 | X 1.00000 | 50.0000 - 0.9679 bias | 39.0000 - 1.0358 bias | ||||||||

Data for Progress | 11/1 | X 1.00000 | 54.0000 - bias | 44.0000 - bias | ||||||||

Swayable | 11/1 | X 1.00000 | 54.5000 - bias | 45.5000 - bias | ||||||||

Public Policy Polling | 10/30 | X 0.96667 | 51.0000 - 0.9088 bias | 42.0000 - 0.0973 bias | ||||||||

Targoz Market Research | 10/30 | X 0.96667 | 53.0000 - 2.7777 bias | 44.0000 - -1.6535 bias | ||||||||

Saint Cloud State University | 10/29 | X 0.95000 | 53.0000 - -3.1924 bias | 36.0000 - 2.2731 bias | ||||||||

Survey USA | 10/27 | X 0.91667 | 45.0000 - 0.4044 bias | 42.0000 - 0.3780 bias | ||||||||

Gravis Marketing | 10/26 | X 0.90000 | 53.0000 - 0.7560 bias | 39.0000 - 0.5484 bias | ||||||||

Civiqs | 10/20 | X 0.80000 | 54.0000 - -4.3882 bias | 43.0000 - -1.4871 bias | 1.0000 - bias | 1.0000 - bias | ||||||

Change Research | 10/15 | X 0.71667 | 48.0000 - 0.7149 bias | 44.0000 - -0.5008 bias | 3.0000 - -0.0924 bias | 1.0000 - -0.6132 bias | ||||||

Suffolk University | 9/24 | X 0.36667 | 44.8000 - 1.8265 bias | 34.8000 - -2.5107 bias | 2.2000 - bias | 1.4000 - bias | ||||||

Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 9/17 | X 0.25000 | 51.0000 - bias | 36.0000 - bias | ||||||||

YouGov | 9/11 | X 0.15000 | 47.0000 - 1.3621 bias | 40.0000 - 0.0717 bias | ||||||||

Siena Research Institute | 9/10 | X 0.13333 | 49.0000 - -0.5836 bias | 40.0000 - 0.9493 bias | ||||||||

TOTAL | 51.236787 | 41.343743 | 2.029851 | 1.311218 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |