Poll Average Details- AZ US Senate - Special Election - 2020-11-03 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Mark Kelly Martha McSally Mohammad Arif John T. Schiess Nicholas Glenn Edward Davida Christopher Beckett Adam Chilton Will Decker Matthew Dorchester Matthew Haupt Perry Kapadia Benjamin Rodriguez Joshua Rodriguez Frank Saenz Debbie Simmons Jim Stevens Buzz Stewart Pat Thomas
Reuters/Ipsos11/2X 1.00000   53.0000 - 3.1158 bias 44.0000 - 0.8563 bias                                  
Marist Institute11/1X 0.98333   52.0000 - 0.7635 bias 46.0000 - -0.4397 bias                                  
Data for Progress11/1X 0.98333   54.0000 - 1.5464 bias 46.0000 - -0.9368 bias                                  
Morning Consult10/31X 0.96667   47.9000 - 3.1429 bias 44.4000 - -1.6394 bias                                  
Emerson College10/31X 0.96667   50.0000 - 0.8084 bias 48.0000 - 0.6906 bias                                  
Data Orbital10/30X 0.95000   47.0000 - 0.7930 bias 46.0000 - -0.0317 bias                                  
SSRS10/30X 0.95000   52.0000 - 1.4667 bias 45.0000 - -0.8430 bias                                  
Siena Research Institute10/30X 0.95000   50.0000 - 0.4840 bias 43.0000 - -0.0165 bias                                  
Rasmussen Reports10/29X 0.93333   48.0000 - 0.4180 bias 43.0000 - 1.5977 bias                                  
Gravis Marketing10/28X 0.91667   50.0000 - 1.1590 bias 45.0000 - 0.2608 bias                                  
Swayable10/26X 0.88333   55.8000 - 2.5280 bias 44.2000 - -2.8104 bias                                  
Justice Collaborative Institute10/25X 0.86667   50.0000 - 4.1476 bias 40.0000 - -3.3402 bias                                  
Latino Decisions10/25X 0.86667   51.0000 - 3.5661 bias 39.0000 - -2.0029 bias                                  
OH Predictive Insights10/25X 0.86667   50.0000 - -0.8237 bias 45.0000 - 1.3069 bias                                  
y2 Analytics10/24X 0.85000   51.0000 - 1.0721 bias 47.0000 - 0.4852 bias                                  
Patinkin Research Strategies10/24X 0.85000   53.0000 - 3.6054 bias 46.0000 - -3.3430 bias                                  
Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R)10/22X 0.81667   47.0000 - 1.4286 bias 50.0000 - -1.1849 bias                                  
RMG Research10/19X 0.76667   46.0000 - 3.2526 bias 39.0000 - -1.9745 bias                                  
Change Research10/19X 0.76667   54.0000 - 1.4957 bias 43.0000 - -1.2913 bias                                  
YouGov10/16X 0.71667   52.0000 - 1.4134 bias 41.0000 - 0.0288 bias                                  
Monmouth University10/13X 0.66667   52.0000 - 1.9679 bias 42.0000 - -0.9091 bias                                  
Trafalgar Group10/9X 0.60000   47.3000 - -1.6435 bias 45.4000 - 1.8988 bias                                  
HighGround10/5X 0.53333   50.0000 - -0.5387 bias 43.5000 - -0.4362 bias                                  
Basswood Research (R)10/5X 0.53333   47.0000 - -1.9275 bias 49.0000 - 3.9682 bias                                  
Targoz Market Research10/2X 0.48333   51.0000 - 3.1386 bias 41.0000 - -2.0175 bias                                  
Suffolk University9/30X 0.45000   49.0000 - 1.6356 bias 40.0000 - -2.1317 bias                                  
Langer Research Associates9/20X 0.28333   49.0000 - 2.9247 bias 48.0000 - -1.7362 bias                                  
Hart Research (D)9/19X 0.26667   55.0000 - 3.2645 bias 43.0000 - -1.1830 bias                                  
Fabrizio Lee (R)9/16X 0.21667  X 1/2 48.0000 - -0.6730 bias 46.0000 - -0.9836 bias                                  
Redfield & Wilton Strategies9/16X 0.21667   52.0000 - 5.3275 bias 35.0000 - -3.3523 bias                                  
Cook Political Report9/13X 0.16667   44.0000 - 3.7698 bias 36.0000 - -2.1258 bias                                  
Benenson Strategy Group (D)9/8X 0.08333   48.0000 - 2.2156 bias 45.0000 - -1.4207 bias                                  
TOTAL 48.855758 44.731738 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000