Poll Average Details- NB Legislative Assembly - Popular Vote - 2018-09-24 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	New Brunswick Liberal Association	Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick	People's Alliance of New Brunswick	Green Party of New Brunswick	New Brunswick New Democratic Party	Independent	KISS NB
Mainstreet Research	9/21	X 1.00000		35.2000 - -1.2213 bias	28.8000 - -1.6293 bias	14.8000 - 2.5193 bias	16.0000 - 2.1777 bias	3.2000 - 0.4056 bias
Nanos Research	9/20	X 0.98333		37.0000 - 0.0404 bias	30.0000 - -1.8572 bias	12.0000 - -0.5827 bias	11.0000 - 0.7857 bias	10.0000 - 1.4413 bias
Forum Research	9/11	X 0.83333		37.0000 - -1.9734 bias	32.0000 - 0.1942 bias	15.0000 - 2.5688 bias	11.0000 - 1.8584 bias	4.0000 - 1.5050 bias
Leger Marketing	9/11	X 0.83333		41.0000 - 1.7985 bias	32.0000 - -6.9491 bias	10.0000 - -2.4817 bias	8.0000 - 1.2886 bias	8.0000 - 0.1085 bias
TOTAL				37.783742	33.073415	12.442312	10.158136	5.442705	0.000000	0.000000