Poll Average Details- RJ Senate - 2018-10-07 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Flávio Bolsonaro Cesar Maia Lindberg Farias Everaldo Pereira "Pastor Everaldo" Chico Alencar Miro Teixeira Arolde de Oliveira Matusael do Nascimento "Mattos Nascimento" Aspásia Camargo Jose Bonifacio Ferreira Novelino "Jose Bonifacio" Cyro Garcia Gabrielle Burcci Fernando Fagundes Ribeiro Walter Cristie Silva Aguiar Marta Barçante Samantha Guedes Eduardo Lopes
Datafolha9/18X 1.00000   21.0000 - -3.8195 bias 24.0000 - 3.3500 bias 18.0000 - 0.3983 bias 6.0000 - -7.5697 bias 9.0000 - -0.5795 bias 9.0000 - 2.3591 bias 5.0000 - -0.8248 bias 4.0000 - -0.0241 bias 3.0000 - -0.8318 bias 3.0000 - -0.3661 bias 4.0000 - 0.8440 bias 1.0000 - 0.2767 bias 1.0000 - 0.4512 bias 0.0000 - 0.5331 bias 1.0000 - 1.8033 bias 0.0000 - 0.8440 bias 3.0000 - 5.9623 bias
TOTAL 24.819500 20.650000 17.601700 13.569700 9.579500 6.640900 5.824800 4.024100 3.831800 3.366100 3.156000 0.723300 0.548800 -0.533100 -0.803300 -0.844000 -2.962300