Poll Average Details- NH Governor - 2018-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Chris Sununu Write-In	Molly Kelly Jilletta Jarvis	Jilletta Jarvis Steve Marchand	Write-In
University of New Hampshire	11/4	X 1.00000		46.0000 - -2.2994 bias	46.0000 - 2.6652 bias	1.0000 - 0.3437 bias
Emerson College	10/29	X 0.90000		51.0000 - 0.6906 bias	43.0000 - 0.8084 bias
Change Research	10/29	X 0.90000	X 1/2	47.0000 - -1.2913 bias	46.0000 - 1.4957 bias
Saint Anselm College	10/15	X 0.66667		48.6000 - -1.4118 bias	38.6000 - 1.8450 bias	0.9000 - -0.0179 bias
American Research Group	9/26	X 0.35000		49.0000 - 0.7892 bias	44.0000 - -0.0031 bias
TOTAL				49.165522	41.952057	0.760940	0.000000