Poll Average Details- AB Legislative Assembly - Popular Vote - 2019-04-16 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal United Conservative Party New Democratic Party Alberta Party Green Party of Alberta Liberal Party Freedom Conservative Party Others Independent Alberta Advantage Party Alberta Independence Party
Pollara4/14X 1.00000   45.0000 - -9.2174 bias 39.0000 - 6.6936 bias 8.0000 - -1.0160 bias 2.0000 - 1.6266 bias 3.0000 - 1.8879 bias 1.0000 - 0.4812 bias        
Ipsos4/8X 0.90000   47.0000 - -7.1766 bias 39.0000 - 3.4259 bias 10.0000 - 0.9115 bias   2.0000 - 1.3632 bias          
Think HQ Public Affairs4/6X 0.86667   46.0000 - -7.7131 bias 40.0000 - 3.0314 bias 8.0000 - 0.8587 bias   2.0000 - 2.4071 bias 1.0000 - 0.4917 bias        
Mainstreet Research4/5X 0.85000   50.5000 - -3.6052 bias 38.0000 - 0.8665 bias 5.8000 - -1.8992 bias   2.0000 - -3.5815 bias 1.7000 - 1.1954 bias        
TOTAL 54.060031 35.371249 8.275326 0.373400 1.680187 0.511007 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000