Poll Average Details- MT At-Large - 2018-11-06 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Greg Gianforte Greg GianforteKathleen Williams Jared PettinatoElinor Swanson Doug Campbell
Change Research11/4X 1.00000   52.0000 - -1.3333 bias 44.0000 - 1.6004 bias 2.0000 - 1.5239 bias  
Gravis Marketing10/26X 0.85000   48.0000 - 0.2608 bias 48.0000 - 1.1590 bias    
University of Montana10/18X 0.71667   45.3000 - -2.7847 bias 45.8000 - 3.5815 bias 1.8000 - -0.7969 bias  
Montana State University Billings10/13X 0.63333   44.0000 - -1.1286 bias 41.0000 - 0.9098 bias 3.0000 - 0.5258 bias  
Montana State University Bozeman10/6X 0.51667   47.6000 - -2.3613 bias 40.1000 - 3.4950 bias 2.4000 - -0.1303 bias  
Benenson Strategy Group (D)9/16X 0.18333   46.0000 - -1.4207 bias 45.0000 - 2.2156 bias    
TOTAL 49.092539 42.209716 1.817974 0.000000