Poll Average Details- MI US Senate - R Primary - 2018-08-07 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal John James Sandy Pensler William F. White
Mitchell Research & Communications7/30X 1.00000   44.0000 - -0.8968 bias 30.0000 - -0.8968 bias  
EPIC/MRA7/22X 0.86667   39.0000 - 0.9419 bias 38.0000 - 0.9419 bias  
Emerson College7/21X 0.85000   28.0000 - 0.7826 bias 28.0000 - 0.7826 bias  
NBC News/Marist7/19X 0.81667   30.0000 - 0.0030 bias 23.0000 - 0.0030 bias  
Target Insyght6/19X 0.31667  X 1/2 29.0000 - -1.0126 bias 32.0000 - -1.0126 bias  
Strategic National (R)6/10X 0.16667   16.0000 - -1.3178 bias 29.0000 - -1.3178 bias  
TOTAL 34.510010 29.859902 0.000000