Poll Average Details- PA Governor - 2018-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Thomas W. Wolf Scott Wagner Kenneth V. Krawchuk Paul Glover
Change Research11/4X 1.00000   53.0000 - 1.4957 bias 42.0000 - -1.2913 bias 2.0000 - 1.5239 bias 1.0000 - 0.3517 bias
Research Co.11/3X 0.98333   54.0000 - 2.3692 bias 39.0000 - -0.3728 bias    
Muhlenberg College11/1X 0.95000   58.0000 - -0.6942 bias 37.0000 - 1.6290 bias    
Franklin & Marshall College10/28X 0.88333   59.0000 - 0.8112 bias 33.0000 - -0.8927 bias 3.0000 - 0.3915 bias 1.0000 - 1.0238 bias
Morning Consult10/2X 0.45000   48.0000 - 3.1429 bias 36.0000 - -1.6394 bias    
Contact Helpers9/30X 0.41667   43.0000 - -4.8809 bias 30.0000 - -5.1431 bias 7.0000 - 10.6127 bias  
Reuters/Ipsos9/21X 0.26667   55.0000 - 3.1158 bias 38.0000 - 0.8563 bias    
Rasmussen Reports9/13X 0.13333   52.0000 - 0.4180 bias 40.0000 - 1.5977 bias    
TOTAL 53.170552 37.800958 0.554341 0.333067