Poll Average Details- QC House of Commons - Popular Vote - 2015-10-19 20:00:00
The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window -
the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0.
If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals
in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively
be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus).
[TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed.
Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.
| Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal |
Liberal Party | New Democratic Party | Bloc Québécois | Conservative Party | Green Party | Communist Party | Christian Heritage Party | Marxist-Leninist Party | Libertarian Party | Independent | No Party Affiliation | Rhinoceros Party | Forces et Démocratie | Alliance of the North |
|---|
| Nanos Research | 10/17 | X 1.00000 |
|
31.4000 - 0.0404 bias |
29.9000 - 1.4413 bias |
18.2000 - -0.3086 bias |
17.1000 - -1.4259 bias |
2.6000 - 0.7857 bias |
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| Ekos Research Associates | 10/17 | X 1.00000 |
|
24.3000 - -3.0634 bias |
26.2000 - 1.8079 bias |
24.8000 - 0.0676 bias |
19.1000 - 0.4387 bias |
3.6000 - 1.6785 bias |
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| Forum Research | 10/9 | X 0.86667 |
|
29.0000 - -1.9734 bias |
25.0000 - 1.5050 bias |
21.0000 - 0.7437 bias |
22.0000 - -2.4669 bias |
2.0000 - 1.8584 bias |
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| Leger Marketing | 9/2 | X 0.25000 |
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20.0000 - 1.7985 bias |
46.0000 - 0.1085 bias |
18.0000 - 4.7421 bias |
13.0000 - -1.3959 bias |
2.0000 - 1.2886 bias |
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| Abacus Data | 8/28 | X 0.16667 |
|
23.0000 - -4.9714 bias |
44.0000 - 7.1125 bias |
13.0000 - -2.8896 bias |
13.0000 - -2.3234 bias |
5.0000 - 2.3226 bias |
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| TOTAL |
28.866666 |
27.665155 |
20.332752 |
19.658291 |
1.365260 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |