Poll Average Details- French President - 2017-04-23 13:00:00
The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window -
the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0.
If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals
in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively
be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus).
[TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed.
Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.
Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal |
Emmanuel Macron | Marine Le Pen | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | François Fillon | Benoît Hamon | Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | Jean Lassalle | Philippe Poutou | François Asselineau | Nathalie Arthaud | Jacques Cheminade |
Odoxa | 4/21 | X 1.00000 |
|
24.5000 - -2.2504 bias |
23.0000 - 2.9013 bias |
19.0000 - -3.2669 bias |
19.0000 - 0.2430 bias |
7.5000 - -0.3574 bias |
4.5000 - -0.1327 bias |
0.5000 - -0.4211 bias |
1.0000 - 0.0702 bias |
1.0000 - 0.0777 bias |
0.0000 - -0.1028 bias |
0.0000 - -0.1819 bias |
IFOP | 4/20 | X 0.98333 |
|
24.0000 - 0.3386 bias |
22.5000 - -0.9238 bias |
18.5000 - -0.0984 bias |
19.5000 - 0.8101 bias |
7.0000 - -1.0973 bias |
4.0000 - -0.3305 bias |
1.5000 - -0.1711 bias |
1.5000 - 0.1581 bias |
1.0000 - -0.0470 bias |
0.5000 - -0.4847 bias |
0.0000 - -0.2157 bias |
Harris Interactive | 4/19 | X 0.96667 |
|
25.0000 - -1.5841 bias |
22.0000 - 0.9692 bias |
19.0000 - -0.9465 bias |
19.0000 - 2.4128 bias |
7.5000 - 0.7771 bias |
4.0000 - -0.3534 bias |
1.0000 - -0.6711 bias |
1.5000 - 0.3315 bias |
0.5000 - -0.2970 bias |
0.5000 - -0.0121 bias |
0.0000 - -0.2157 bias |
BVA | 4/19 | X 0.96667 |
|
24.0000 - -0.6573 bias |
23.0000 - 1.4049 bias |
19.0000 - -2.4274 bias |
19.0000 - 1.3576 bias |
8.5000 - 0.6269 bias |
3.5000 - -0.1400 bias |
0.5000 - -0.6711 bias |
1.5000 - 0.3737 bias |
0.5000 - -0.4223 bias |
0.5000 - -0.0183 bias |
0.0000 - -0.2157 bias |
Elabe | 4/17 | X 0.93333 |
|
24.0000 - -0.3266 bias |
23.0000 - 2.9013 bias |
18.0000 - -0.2118 bias |
19.5000 - 1.7014 bias |
8.0000 - -0.8150 bias |
4.0000 - -0.7012 bias |
0.5000 - -0.7073 bias |
2.0000 - 0.9058 bias |
0.5000 - -0.2970 bias |
0.5000 - -0.4593 bias |
0.0000 - -0.1819 bias |
OpinionWay | 4/16 | X 0.91667 |
|
22.0000 - 0.2479 bias |
22.0000 - 0.8959 bias |
18.0000 - -1.9274 bias |
21.0000 - -1.1361 bias |
8.0000 - -0.8839 bias |
3.0000 - -0.3012 bias |
2.0000 - 0.3289 bias |
2.0000 - 0.5349 bias |
1.0000 - 0.0777 bias |
1.0000 - -0.1440 bias |
0.0000 - -0.2157 bias |
Scan Research | 4/15 | X 0.90000 |
|
24.0000 - 2.0778 bias |
21.5000 - 2.0726 bias |
22.0000 - 4.3317 bias |
17.5000 - -0.9841 bias |
|
3.5000 - -0.8969 bias |
0.5000 - -0.6639 bias |
1.5000 - 0.5362 bias |
0.5000 - -0.3789 bias |
1.0000 - 0.4424 bias |
0.0000 - -0.1819 bias |
Ipsos | 4/13 | X 0.86667 |
|
22.0000 - -2.2401 bias |
22.0000 - 1.8898 bias |
20.0000 - -0.8941 bias |
19.0000 - 0.1276 bias |
7.5000 - -1.1038 bias |
3.5000 - -0.5538 bias |
1.5000 - -0.3712 bias |
2.0000 - 0.6911 bias |
1.5000 - -0.0581 bias |
0.5000 - -0.2681 bias |
0.5000 - 0.1290 bias |
TNS Sofres | 4/7 | X 0.76667 |
|
24.0000 - -0.0091 bias |
24.0000 - 1.0251 bias |
18.0000 - -1.5814 bias |
17.0000 - -2.8515 bias |
9.0000 - 0.5959 bias |
3.5000 - -0.4980 bias |
0.5000 - -0.7073 bias |
2.5000 - 0.6300 bias |
1.0000 - 0.0777 bias |
0.5000 - 0.2114 bias |
0.0000 - -0.2157 bias |
TOTAL |
24.257842 |
21.080595 |
19.859838 |
18.715508 |
8.135120 |
4.164759 |
1.393407 |
1.237033 |
0.970073 |
0.650595 |
0.220378 |