Poll Average Details- WV US Senate - 2018-11-06 18:30:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Joe Manchin Paula Jean SwearenginPatrick Morrisey Patrick MorriseyRusty Hollen Larry Eugene Butcher Don Blankenship Mark Brazaitis Christopher Cross Ry Hutcherson
Emerson College10/31X 1.00000   47.0000 - 0.8084 bias 42.0000 - 0.6906 bias 3.0000 - 1.2130 bias          
Research America10/29X 0.96667   45.0000 - 3.9184 bias 40.0000 - -7.6926 bias 11.0000 - 4.1908 bias          
Strategic Research Associates10/19X 0.80000   52.0000 - 1.4101 bias 36.0000 - 0.4303 bias 4.0000 - 0.1824 bias          
Fabrizio Lee (R)10/18X 0.78333  X 1/2 42.0000 - -0.6730 bias 44.0000 - -0.9836 bias 3.0000 - 2.2446 bias          
Vox Populi10/15X 0.73333   53.0000 - 2.4096 bias 47.0000 - -0.3032 bias            
the polling company™ (R)10/13X 0.70000  X 1/2 49.0000 - -0.1545 bias 45.0000 - 1.2390 bias            
Public Opinion Strategies (R)10/9X 0.63333  X 1/2 41.0000 - -1.2825 bias 40.0000 - 2.6066 bias            
1892 Polling9/25X 0.40000  X 1/2 45.0000 - 1.0398 bias 45.0000 - 0.2076 bias            
Global Strategy Group (D)9/23X 0.36667  X 1/2 48.0000 - 2.9065 bias 36.0000 - -2.0582 bias 4.0000 - 2.6764 bias          
TOTAL 46.106239 42.752581 3.579600 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000