Poll Average Details- MT US Senate - 2018-11-06 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Jon Tester Jon TesterMatthew M. Rosendale, Sr. Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr.Rick Breckenridge Steve Kelly Steve Kelly
Trafalgar Group11/5X 1.00000   50.1000 - -1.3560 bias 49.0000 - 2.0875 bias    
Change Research11/4X 0.98333   46.0000 - 0.7149 bias 49.0000 - -0.5008 bias 3.0000 - 1.4740 bias  
Harris Interactive11/4X 0.98333   48.5000 - 0.3400 bias 43.0000 - -0.1811 bias    
Gravis Marketing10/26X 0.83333   48.0000 - 0.7560 bias 45.0000 - 0.5484 bias    
University of Montana10/18X 0.70000   49.0000 - 3.5815 bias 39.0000 - -2.7847 bias 2.0000 - -0.7969 bias  
Montana State University Billings10/13X 0.61667   47.0000 - -0.0206 bias 38.0000 - -0.3900 bias 3.0000 - 0.8394 bias  
Montana State University Bozeman10/6X 0.50000   46.2000 - -0.9018 bias 43.1000 - 1.0322 bias 2.6000 - -0.1303 bias  
Public Policy Polling9/28X 0.36667   49.0000 - 0.9088 bias 45.0000 - 0.0973 bias    
Axis Research9/19X 0.21667  X 1/2 44.0000 - -5.7108 bias 44.0000 - 5.8252 bias 4.0000 - 1.4641 bias  
Benenson Strategy Group (D)9/16X 0.16667   50.0000 - 2.1766 bias 43.0000 - -1.5747 bias    
YouGov9/14X 0.13333   47.0000 - 1.3621 bias 45.0000 - 0.0717 bias    
TOTAL 47.581950 44.287229 2.211108 0.000000