Poll Average Details- MT US Senate - 2018-11-06 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Jon Tester Jon Tester	Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr.	Rick Breckenridge	Steve Kelly Steve Kelly
Trafalgar Group	11/5	X 1.00000		50.1000 - -1.6435 bias	49.0000 - 1.8988 bias
Change Research	11/4	X 0.98333		46.0000 - 1.4957 bias	49.0000 - -1.2913 bias	3.0000 - 1.5239 bias
Harris Interactive	11/4	X 0.98333		48.5000 - 0.3558 bias	43.0000 - -0.1209 bias
Gravis Marketing	10/26	X 0.83333		48.0000 - 1.1590 bias	45.0000 - 0.2608 bias
University of Montana	10/18	X 0.70000		49.0000 - 3.5815 bias	39.0000 - -2.7847 bias	2.0000 - -0.7969 bias
Montana State University Billings	10/13	X 0.61667		47.0000 - 0.9098 bias	38.0000 - -1.1286 bias	3.0000 - 0.5258 bias
Montana State University Bozeman	10/6	X 0.50000		46.2000 - 3.4950 bias	43.1000 - -2.3613 bias	2.6000 - -0.1303 bias
Public Policy Polling	9/28	X 0.36667		49.0000 - 1.1680 bias	45.0000 - -0.1800 bias
Axis Research	9/19	X 0.21667	X 1/2	44.0000 - -5.7108 bias	44.0000 - 4.2886 bias	4.0000 - 1.4641 bias
Benenson Strategy Group (D)	9/16	X 0.16667		50.0000 - 2.2156 bias	43.0000 - -1.4207 bias
YouGov	9/14	X 0.13333		47.0000 - 1.4134 bias	45.0000 - 0.0288 bias
TOTAL				47.001165	44.842157	2.260730	0.000000