Poll Average Details- MO US Senate - 2018-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Josh Hawley Josh HawleyClaire McCaskill David FaustCraig O'Dear Jo Crain Jerome BauerMartin "Mad Dog" Lindstedt Gina Bufe Steven Wallace Rodney Stock Cassie Ganier Japheth Campbell
Trafalgar Group11/4X 1.00000   48.3000 - 2.0875 bias 44.4000 - -1.3560 bias                
Harris Interactive11/4X 1.00000   46.7000 - -0.1811 bias 44.4000 - 0.3400 bias                
Emerson College11/3X 0.98333   49.0000 - 0.7826 bias 46.0000 - 0.7363 bias                
Remington Research11/2X 0.96667   47.0000 - -0.8071 bias 47.0000 - 1.6114 bias 1.0000 - 1.8659 bias 1.0000 - 0.3516 bias           1.0000 - 0.3321 bias
Marist Institute11/1X 0.95000   44.0000 - -0.3584 bias 47.0000 - 0.4625 bias   2.0000 - 2.6344 bias           3.0000 - 4.1690 bias
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/30X 0.91667   43.0000 - -0.2043 bias 43.0000 - 0.8627 bias 3.0000 - 1.5246 bias 1.0000 - 0.6623 bias           0.0000 - 1.4581 bias
Cygnal (R)10/27X 0.86667   49.4000 - 0.2881 bias 46.4000 - -0.0166 bias                
OnMessage Inc. (R)10/18X 0.71667  X 1/2 49.0000 - 3.7328 bias 42.0000 - -1.8692 bias                
the polling company™ (R)10/13X 0.63333  X 1/2 50.0000 - 1.2390 bias 47.0000 - -0.1545 bias                
Reuters/Ipsos10/7X 0.53333   45.0000 - -6.3315 bias 44.0000 - -5.4077 bias                
1st Tuesday Campaigns10/6X 0.51667   44.0000 - -0.2204 bias 42.0000 - 3.2679 bias                
McLaughlin & Associates (R)10/2X 0.45000  X 1/2 52.0000 - 4.1073 bias 44.0000 - -3.4361 bias                
Vox Populi10/1X 0.43333   51.0000 - -0.3032 bias 49.0000 - 2.4096 bias                
SSRS9/29X 0.40000   44.0000 - -0.7501 bias 47.0000 - 1.6902 bias   1.0000 - 0.5324 bias           3.0000 - 1.4218 bias
YouGov9/14X 0.15000   45.0000 - 0.0717 bias 45.0000 - 1.3621 bias                
TOTAL 46.852122 45.110378 0.273671 0.161043 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.361925