[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Josh Hawley Josh Hawley | Claire McCaskill David Faust | Craig O'Dear | Jo Crain Jerome Bauer | Martin "Mad Dog" Lindstedt | Gina Bufe | Steven Wallace | Rodney Stock | Cassie Ganier | Japheth Campbell |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Trafalgar Group | 11/4 | X 1.00000 | 48.3000 - 2.0875 bias | 44.4000 - -1.3560 bias | |||||||||

Harris Interactive | 11/4 | X 1.00000 | 46.7000 - -0.1811 bias | 44.4000 - 0.3400 bias | |||||||||

Emerson College | 11/3 | X 0.98333 | 49.0000 - 0.7826 bias | 46.0000 - 0.7363 bias | |||||||||

Remington Research | 11/2 | X 0.96667 | 47.0000 - -0.8071 bias | 47.0000 - 1.6114 bias | 1.0000 - 1.8659 bias | 1.0000 - 0.3516 bias | 1.0000 - 0.3321 bias | ||||||

Marist Institute | 11/1 | X 0.95000 | 44.0000 - -0.3584 bias | 47.0000 - 0.4625 bias | 2.0000 - 2.6344 bias | 3.0000 - 4.1690 bias | |||||||

Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News | 10/30 | X 0.91667 | 43.0000 - -0.2043 bias | 43.0000 - 0.8627 bias | 3.0000 - 1.5246 bias | 1.0000 - 0.6623 bias | 0.0000 - 1.4581 bias | ||||||

Cygnal (R) | 10/27 | X 0.86667 | 49.4000 - 0.2881 bias | 46.4000 - -0.0166 bias | |||||||||

OnMessage Inc. (R) | 10/18 | X 0.71667 | X 1/2 | 49.0000 - 3.7328 bias | 42.0000 - -1.8692 bias | ||||||||

the polling companyâ„˘ (R) | 10/13 | X 0.63333 | X 1/2 | 50.0000 - 1.2390 bias | 47.0000 - -0.1545 bias | ||||||||

Reuters/Ipsos | 10/7 | X 0.53333 | 45.0000 - -6.3315 bias | 44.0000 - -5.4077 bias | |||||||||

1st Tuesday Campaigns | 10/6 | X 0.51667 | 44.0000 - -0.2204 bias | 42.0000 - 3.2679 bias | |||||||||

McLaughlin & Associates (R) | 10/2 | X 0.45000 | X 1/2 | 52.0000 - 4.1073 bias | 44.0000 - -3.4361 bias | ||||||||

Vox Populi | 10/1 | X 0.43333 | 51.0000 - -0.3032 bias | 49.0000 - 2.4096 bias | |||||||||

SSRS | 9/29 | X 0.40000 | 44.0000 - -0.7501 bias | 47.0000 - 1.6902 bias | 1.0000 - 0.5324 bias | 3.0000 - 1.4218 bias | |||||||

YouGov | 9/14 | X 0.15000 | 45.0000 - 0.0717 bias | 45.0000 - 1.3621 bias | |||||||||

TOTAL | 46.852122 | 45.110378 | 0.273671 | 0.161043 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | -0.361925 |