Poll Average Details- MI US Senate - 2018-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Debbie Stabenow John James George E. Huffman III John Howard Wilhelm Tom Bagwell William F. White Valerie L. Willis Tim Yow Tim YowMarcia Squier
Trafalgar Group11/5X 1.00000   52.8000 - -1.3560 bias 43.8000 - 2.0875 bias              
Mitchell Research & Communications11/5X 1.00000   49.0000 - 2.7632 bias 46.0000 - -0.8968 bias              
Change Research11/4X 0.98333   49.0000 - 0.7149 bias 47.0000 - -0.5008 bias 1.0000 - 0.3449 bias 1.0000 - 0.6954 bias         1.0000 - 0.5503 bias
Research Co.11/3X 0.96667   52.0000 - 0.9679 bias 36.0000 - 1.0358 bias              
Gravis Marketing10/30X 0.90000   54.0000 - 0.7560 bias 41.0000 - 0.5484 bias              
Glengariff Group10/27X 0.85000   53.0000 - 0.7487 bias 36.3000 - -0.5549 bias 1.2000 - 0.5142 bias 0.3000 - 0.2329 bias         1.2000 - 2.5473 bias
Emerson College10/26X 0.83333   52.0000 - 0.7363 bias 43.0000 - 0.7826 bias              
Target Insyght10/24X 0.80000   53.0000 - 2.7972 bias 43.0000 - -1.0126 bias              
EPIC/MRA10/23X 0.78333   49.0000 - 0.7465 bias 42.0000 - 0.9419 bias              
Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (Michigan State University)10/22X 0.76667   49.0000 - 3.4774 bias 42.0000 - -4.1284 bias              
Tarrance Group (R)10/22X 0.76667  X 1/2 48.0000 - -0.7841 bias 41.0000 - 1.2543 bias              
Marketing Resource Group10/18X 0.70000   53.0000 - 1.9569 bias 37.0000 - -1.4427 bias              
Reuters/Ipsos9/21X 0.25000   55.0000 - -5.4077 bias 35.0000 - -6.3315 bias              
Strategic National (R)9/9X 0.05000   53.0000 - 3.1246 bias 35.0000 - -1.3178 bias              
TOTAL 50.371271 41.791879 0.669334 0.194486 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.383455