[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Debbie Stabenow | John James | George E. Huffman III | John Howard Wilhelm | Tom Bagwell | William F. White | Valerie L. Willis | Tim Yow Tim Yow | Marcia Squier |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Trafalgar Group | 11/5 | X 1.00000 | 52.8000 - -1.3560 bias | 43.8000 - 2.0875 bias | ||||||||

Mitchell Research & Communications | 11/5 | X 1.00000 | 49.0000 - 2.7632 bias | 46.0000 - -0.8968 bias | ||||||||

Change Research | 11/4 | X 0.98333 | 49.0000 - 0.7149 bias | 47.0000 - -0.5008 bias | 1.0000 - 0.3449 bias | 1.0000 - 0.6954 bias | 1.0000 - 0.5503 bias | |||||

Research Co. | 11/3 | X 0.96667 | 52.0000 - 0.9679 bias | 36.0000 - 1.0358 bias | ||||||||

Gravis Marketing | 10/30 | X 0.90000 | 54.0000 - 0.7560 bias | 41.0000 - 0.5484 bias | ||||||||

Glengariff Group | 10/27 | X 0.85000 | 53.0000 - 0.7487 bias | 36.3000 - -0.5549 bias | 1.2000 - 0.5142 bias | 0.3000 - 0.2329 bias | 1.2000 - 2.5473 bias | |||||

Emerson College | 10/26 | X 0.83333 | 52.0000 - 0.7363 bias | 43.0000 - 0.7826 bias | ||||||||

Target Insyght | 10/24 | X 0.80000 | 53.0000 - 2.7972 bias | 43.0000 - -1.0126 bias | ||||||||

EPIC/MRA | 10/23 | X 0.78333 | 49.0000 - 0.7465 bias | 42.0000 - 0.9419 bias | ||||||||

Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (Michigan State University) | 10/22 | X 0.76667 | 49.0000 - 3.4774 bias | 42.0000 - -4.1284 bias | ||||||||

Tarrance Group (R) | 10/22 | X 0.76667 | X 1/2 | 48.0000 - -0.7841 bias | 41.0000 - 1.2543 bias | |||||||

Marketing Resource Group | 10/18 | X 0.70000 | 53.0000 - 1.9569 bias | 37.0000 - -1.4427 bias | ||||||||

Reuters/Ipsos | 9/21 | X 0.25000 | 55.0000 - -5.4077 bias | 35.0000 - -6.3315 bias | ||||||||

Strategic National (R) | 9/9 | X 0.05000 | 53.0000 - 3.1246 bias | 35.0000 - -1.3178 bias | ||||||||

TOTAL | 50.371271 | 41.791879 | 0.669334 | 0.194486 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | -0.383455 |