Poll Average Details- PA US Senate - 2018-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Bob Casey Jr. Lou Barletta Lou BarlettaNeal Gale Dale Kerns Osborne G. Hart Ric Caruso
Change Research11/4X 1.00000   51.0000 - 0.7149 bias 44.0000 - -0.5008 bias 2.0000 - 0.5503 bias 1.0000 - 1.4740 bias    
Research Co.11/3X 0.98333   56.0000 - 0.9679 bias 39.0000 - 1.0358 bias        
Muhlenberg College11/1X 0.95000   54.0000 - -1.1484 bias 40.0000 - 2.0125 bias        
Franklin & Marshall College10/28X 0.88333   53.0000 - 0.4126 bias 35.0000 - -0.7416 bias 2.0000 - 1.0238 bias 1.0000 - 0.3915 bias    
Morning Consult10/2X 0.45000   47.0000 - 2.6453 bias 32.0000 - -3.7909 bias        
Contact Helpers9/30X 0.41667  X 1/2 38.0000 - -4.8809 bias 27.0000 - -5.1431 bias   11.0000 - 10.6127 bias    
Reuters/Ipsos9/21X 0.26667   53.0000 - -5.4077 bias 37.0000 - -6.3315 bias        
Rasmussen Reports9/13X 0.13333   52.0000 - 0.4145 bias 38.0000 - 1.6097 bias        
TOTAL 52.223543 38.708026 1.227616 0.068938 0.000000 0.000000