[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Bob Casey Jr. | Lou Barletta Lou Barletta | Neal Gale | Dale Kerns | Osborne G. Hart | Ric Caruso |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Change Research | 11/4 | X 1.00000 | 51.0000 - 0.7149 bias | 44.0000 - -0.5008 bias | 2.0000 - 0.5503 bias | 1.0000 - 1.4740 bias | |||

Research Co. | 11/3 | X 0.98333 | 56.0000 - 0.9679 bias | 39.0000 - 1.0358 bias | |||||

Muhlenberg College | 11/1 | X 0.95000 | 54.0000 - -1.1484 bias | 40.0000 - 2.0125 bias | |||||

Franklin & Marshall College | 10/28 | X 0.88333 | 53.0000 - 0.4126 bias | 35.0000 - -0.7416 bias | 2.0000 - 1.0238 bias | 1.0000 - 0.3915 bias | |||

Morning Consult | 10/2 | X 0.45000 | 47.0000 - 2.6453 bias | 32.0000 - -3.7909 bias | |||||

Contact Helpers | 9/30 | X 0.41667 | X 1/2 | 38.0000 - -4.8809 bias | 27.0000 - -5.1431 bias | 11.0000 - 10.6127 bias | |||

Reuters/Ipsos | 9/21 | X 0.26667 | 53.0000 - -5.4077 bias | 37.0000 - -6.3315 bias | |||||

Rasmussen Reports | 9/13 | X 0.13333 | 52.0000 - 0.4145 bias | 38.0000 - 1.6097 bias | |||||

TOTAL | 52.223543 | 38.708026 | 1.227616 | 0.068938 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |