[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton | Donald Trump Donald Trump | Gary Johnson | Jill Stein | Write-In |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

SurveyMonkey | 11/7 | X 1.00000 | 50.0000 - 2.3995 bias | 35.0000 - -2.7711 bias | 7.0000 - 3.8744 bias | 5.0000 - 2.6552 bias | ||

Ipsos | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 47.0000 - 4.1560 bias | 37.0000 - 1.7917 bias | ||||

Gravis Marketing | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 44.0000 - 0.8344 bias | 40.0000 - 0.4601 bias | 6.0000 - 1.7309 bias | 5.0000 - 2.7638 bias | ||

YouGov | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 43.8000 - 1.3622 bias | 36.0000 - 0.0715 bias | 5.4000 - 3.7162 bias | 2.8000 - 0.6824 bias | ||

DHM Research | 10/29 | X 0.85000 | 41.0000 - -1.5389 bias | 34.0000 - 1.9786 bias | 4.0000 - 0.4781 bias | 2.0000 - -0.0885 bias | ||

Riley Research Associates (R) | 10/14 | X 0.60000 | 46.0000 - 0.6395 bias | 36.0000 - 1.1891 bias | 5.0000 - -0.7523 bias | 5.0000 - 2.9354 bias | ||

Survey USA | 10/12 | X 0.56667 | 48.0000 - 0.4046 bias | 38.0000 - 0.3777 bias | 6.0000 - 1.3869 bias | 4.0000 - 1.6673 bias | ||

Hoffman Research (R) | 10/1 | X 0.38333 | 45.0000 - -1.6204 bias | 33.0000 - 2.2404 bias | 8.0000 - 1.5127 bias | 3.0000 - 0.8714 bias | ||

TOTAL | 44.428875 | 35.876914 | 3.824566 | 2.194630 | 0.000000 |