Poll Average Details- IL US President - 2016-11-08 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Hillary Clinton Hillary ClintonDonald J. Trump Donald J. TrumpGary Johnson Jill Stein Uncommitted Others Arthur C. Brumfield Joann Breivogel Roy Wayne Tyree Darrell L. Castle Laurence Kotlikoff Tom Hoefling James Struck Joseph "Joe Exotic" Maldonado Evan McMullin Cherunda Fox Marshall Schoenke Ben Hartnell
SurveyMonkey11/7X 1.00000   52.0000 - 2.3995 bias 35.0000 - -2.7710 bias 6.0000 - 3.8477 bias 4.0000 - 2.3758 bias                          
Reuters/Ipsos11/6X 0.98333   51.0000 - -5.4077 bias 39.0000 - -6.3315 bias                              
YouGov11/6X 0.98333   48.3000 - 1.3621 bias 33.1000 - 0.0717 bias 4.4000 - 3.6731 bias 1.9000 - 1.4484 bias                          
Emerson College10/30X 0.86667   53.0000 - 0.7363 bias 41.0000 - 0.7826 bias 2.0000 - 1.4516 bias 0.0000 - 1.6142 bias                          
Loras College10/27X 0.81667   45.0000 - 3.1867 bias 34.0000 - -1.2295 bias 6.0000 - 0.8422 bias 2.0000 - 1.5194 bias                          
Victory Research10/18X 0.66667   51.2000 - -1.7054 bias 36.1000 - -0.6003 bias 5.6000 - 1.1528 bias 1.8000 - -0.1627 bias                          
Illinois Public Opinion Strategies10/13X 0.58333   50.0000 - -1.1956 bias 31.5000 - 0.5683 bias 5.8000 - 0.9664 bias 1.1000 - -0.2192 bias                          
GS Strategy Group (R)10/5X 0.45000   50.0000 - -1.0594 bias 33.0000 - 3.4893 bias 6.0000 - 1.7757 bias 2.0000 - 0.5250 bias                          
Southern Illinois University10/2X 0.40000   53.0000 - 0.8155 bias 28.0000 - -1.5962 bias 5.0000 - 0.7199 bias 2.0000 - 0.4227 bias                          
TOTAL 50.318712 36.456192 2.939643 0.768982 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000