Poll Average Details- AZ US President - 2016-11-08 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Donald Trump Donald TrumpHillary Clinton Hillary ClintonGary Johnson Jill Stein Jill SteinWillie Felix Carter Darrell L. Castle Laurence Kotlikoff Tom Hoefling Sheila "Samm" Tittle Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente Joseph A. "Joe Exotic" Maldonado Evan McMullin Mike Smith Michael Corsetti Cherunda Fox Marshall Schoenke Ben Hartnell Robert L. Buchanan Mitchell In-Albon Delano Steinacker
SurveyMonkey11/7X 1.00000   42.0000 - -2.7711 bias 45.0000 - 2.3995 bias 7.0000 - 3.8744 bias 3.0000 - 2.3826 bias                                
Insights West11/6X 0.98333   43.0000 - 1.7475 bias 41.0000 - 0.5620 bias 5.0000 - 0.4888 bias 2.0000 - 0.1406 bias                                
Ipsos11/6X 0.98333   47.0000 - 1.7917 bias 42.0000 - 4.1560 bias                                    
Data Orbital11/6X 0.98333   47.0000 - -0.0515 bias 44.0000 - 1.6367 bias 4.0000 - -0.0084 bias 2.0000 - 0.7763 bias                                
YouGov11/6X 0.98333   46.3000 - 0.0715 bias 37.8000 - 1.3622 bias 4.3000 - 3.7162 bias 1.6000 - 1.5138 bias                                
Gravis Marketing11/6X 0.98333   45.0000 - 0.4601 bias 43.0000 - 0.8344 bias 3.0000 - 1.7309 bias 5.0000 - 1.4639 bias                                
Lucid11/1X 0.90000   42.0000 - -3.2437 bias 41.0000 - 2.5143 bias 8.0000 - 6.0535 bias 3.0000 - 1.8425 bias                                
Marist Institute11/1X 0.90000   45.0000 - -0.3594 bias 40.0000 - 0.4633 bias 9.0000 - 4.0806 bias 3.0000 - 2.6344 bias                                
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)11/1X 0.90000   49.0000 - 0.4309 bias 44.0000 - 0.8610 bias 5.0000 - 2.3616 bias 1.0000 - 1.3465 bias                                
Saguaro Strategies10/31X 0.88333   44.0000 - -3.3108 bias 45.0000 - 1.2657 bias 7.0000 - 3.0843 bias 1.0000 - -0.3038 bias                                
Emerson College10/31X 0.88333   47.0000 - 0.8410 bias 43.0000 - 0.7354 bias 2.0000 - 1.3685 bias 2.0000 - 1.6142 bias                                
Monmouth University10/24X 0.76667   46.0000 - -0.3487 bias 45.0000 - 1.2761 bias 4.0000 - 1.0789 bias 1.0000 - 0.3957 bias                                
Arizona State University10/15X 0.61667   37.8000 - -0.8570 bias 43.3000 - 1.2289 bias 6.5000 - 0.1090 bias 4.3000 - 3.3443 bias                                
HighGround10/14X 0.60000   36.5000 - -1.5495 bias 38.5000 - -0.0117 bias 8.3000 - 5.5415 bias 2.5000 - 1.5522 bias                                
OH Predictive Insights9/30X 0.36667   42.0000 - 3.3870 bias 42.0000 - -2.8681 bias 5.0000 - 1.4234 bias 1.0000 - -0.2236 bias                                
TOTAL 44.724663 41.039018 2.982377 1.007016 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000