Poll Average Details- AZ US President - 2016-11-08 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Donald J. Trump Donald J. TrumpHillary Clinton Hillary ClintonGary Johnson Jill Stein Jill SteinWillie Felix Carter Darrell L. Castle Laurence Kotlikoff Tom Hoefling Sheila "Samm" Tittle Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente Joseph "Joe Exotic" Maldonado Evan McMullin Mike Smith Michael Corsetti Cherunda Fox Marshall Schoenke Ben Hartnell Robert L. Buchanan Mitchell In-Albon Delano Steinacker
SurveyMonkey11/7X 1.00000   42.0000 - -2.2024 bias 45.0000 - 2.6000 bias 7.0000 - 3.8473 bias 3.0000 - 2.3756 bias                                
Insights West11/6X 0.98333   43.0000 - 1.7476 bias 41.0000 - 0.5620 bias 5.0000 - 0.4888 bias 2.0000 - 0.1406 bias                                
Gravis Marketing11/6X 0.98333   45.0000 - 0.2608 bias 43.0000 - 1.1590 bias 3.0000 - 1.7089 bias 5.0000 - 1.4635 bias                                
Data Orbital11/6X 0.98333   47.0000 - -0.0317 bias 44.0000 - 0.7930 bias 4.0000 - 0.5182 bias 2.0000 - 0.7763 bias                                
YouGov11/6X 0.98333   46.3000 - 0.0288 bias 37.8000 - 1.4134 bias 4.3000 - 3.6071 bias 1.6000 - 1.3922 bias                                
Reuters/Ipsos11/6X 0.98333   47.0000 - 0.8563 bias 42.0000 - 3.1158 bias                                    
Marist Institute11/1X 0.90000   45.0000 - -0.4397 bias 40.0000 - 0.7635 bias 9.0000 - 4.1685 bias 3.0000 - 2.5135 bias                                
Lucid11/1X 0.90000   42.0000 - -2.8535 bias 41.0000 - 2.1557 bias 8.0000 - 5.9289 bias 3.0000 - 1.8425 bias                                
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)11/1X 0.90000   49.0000 - 0.4312 bias 44.0000 - 0.8608 bias 5.0000 - 2.2808 bias 1.0000 - 1.3465 bias                                
Saguaro Strategies10/31X 0.88333   44.0000 - -3.3108 bias 45.0000 - 1.2657 bias 7.0000 - 3.0843 bias 1.0000 - -0.3038 bias                                
Emerson College10/31X 0.88333   47.0000 - 0.6906 bias 43.0000 - 0.8084 bias 2.0000 - 1.2130 bias 2.0000 - 1.4786 bias                                
Monmouth University10/24X 0.76667   46.0000 - -0.9091 bias 45.0000 - 1.9679 bias 4.0000 - 0.8035 bias 1.0000 - 0.1881 bias                                
Arizona State University10/15X 0.61667   37.8000 - -0.8570 bias 43.3000 - 1.2289 bias 6.5000 - 0.1090 bias 4.3000 - 3.3443 bias                                
HighGround10/14X 0.60000   36.5000 - -0.4362 bias 38.5000 - -0.5387 bias 8.3000 - 4.7074 bias 2.5000 - 1.5522 bias                                
OH Predictive Insights9/30X 0.36667   42.0000 - 1.3069 bias 42.0000 - -0.8237 bias 5.0000 - 1.3227 bias 1.0000 - -0.2236 bias                                
TOTAL 44.799078 41.063123 3.035979 1.050822 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000