[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Donald Trump Donald Trump | Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton | Gary Johnson | Jill Stein Jill Stein | Willie Felix Carter | Darrell L. Castle | Laurence Kotlikoff | Tom Hoefling | Sheila "Samm" Tittle | Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | Joseph A. "Joe Exotic" Maldonado | Evan McMullin | Mike Smith | Michael Corsetti | Cherunda Fox | Marshall Schoenke | Ben Hartnell | Robert L. Buchanan | Mitchell In-Albon | Delano Steinacker |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

SurveyMonkey | 11/7 | X 1.00000 | 42.0000 - -2.7710 bias | 45.0000 - 2.3995 bias | 7.0000 - 3.8477 bias | 3.0000 - 2.3758 bias | |||||||||||||||||

YouGov | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 46.3000 - 0.0717 bias | 37.8000 - 1.3621 bias | 4.3000 - 3.6731 bias | 1.6000 - 1.4484 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Gravis Marketing | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 45.0000 - 0.5484 bias | 43.0000 - 0.7560 bias | 3.0000 - 1.7092 bias | 5.0000 - 1.4639 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Insights West | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 43.0000 - 1.7475 bias | 41.0000 - 0.5620 bias | 5.0000 - 0.4888 bias | 2.0000 - 0.1406 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Ipsos | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 47.0000 - 1.7940 bias | 42.0000 - 4.1538 bias | |||||||||||||||||||

Data Orbital | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 47.0000 - -0.0515 bias | 44.0000 - 1.6367 bias | 4.0000 - -0.0084 bias | 2.0000 - 0.7763 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Lucid | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 42.0000 - -3.2437 bias | 41.0000 - 2.5143 bias | 8.0000 - 5.9289 bias | 3.0000 - 1.8425 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Marist Institute | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 45.0000 - -0.3584 bias | 40.0000 - 0.4625 bias | 9.0000 - 4.1690 bias | 3.0000 - 2.6344 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Opinion Research Corporation (CNN) | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 49.0000 - 0.4310 bias | 44.0000 - 0.8611 bias | 5.0000 - 2.2808 bias | 1.0000 - 1.3465 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Saguaro Strategies | 10/31 | X 0.88333 | 44.0000 - -3.3108 bias | 45.0000 - 1.2657 bias | 7.0000 - 3.0843 bias | 1.0000 - -0.3038 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Emerson College | 10/31 | X 0.88333 | 47.0000 - 0.7826 bias | 43.0000 - 0.7363 bias | 2.0000 - 1.4516 bias | 2.0000 - 1.6142 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Monmouth University | 10/24 | X 0.76667 | 46.0000 - -0.3486 bias | 45.0000 - 1.2762 bias | 4.0000 - 1.1165 bias | 1.0000 - 0.3957 bias | |||||||||||||||||

Arizona State University | 10/15 | X 0.61667 | 37.8000 - -0.8570 bias | 43.3000 - 1.2289 bias | 6.5000 - 0.1090 bias | 4.3000 - 3.3443 bias | |||||||||||||||||

HighGround | 10/14 | X 0.60000 | 36.5000 - -1.5495 bias | 38.5000 - -0.0117 bias | 8.3000 - 5.5415 bias | 2.5000 - 1.5522 bias | |||||||||||||||||

OH Predictive Insights | 9/30 | X 0.36667 | 42.0000 - 3.3870 bias | 42.0000 - -2.8681 bias | 5.0000 - 1.4234 bias | 1.0000 - -0.2236 bias | |||||||||||||||||

TOTAL | 44.721611 | 41.045232 | 2.990334 | 1.013068 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |