Poll Average Details- French National Assembly - Pyrénées-Atlantiques - 2nd Circonscription - 2012-06-10 04:55:00
The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window -
the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0.
If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals
in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively
be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus).
[TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed.
Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.
| Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal |
Nathalie Chabanne | François Bayrou | Eric Saubatte | Jessica Bernadez | Daniel Labouret | Eurydice Bled | Marc Vercoutère | Guillaume Besse | Didier Perrin | Marianne Ligou | Frédéric Steinbauer |
|---|
| OpinionWay | 5/23 | X 1.00000 |
|
30.0000 - -0.8839 bias |
24.0000 - 0.3682 bias |
23.0000 - 1.1532 bias |
11.0000 - 0.8959 bias |
8.0000 - 1.9494 bias |
3.0000 - -0.2523 bias |
0.0000 - -0.9585 bias |
0.0000 - -0.3012 bias |
0.0000 - -0.4144 bias |
1.0000 - 0.5349 bias |
0.0000 - -0.1440 bias |
| IFOP | 5/23 | X 1.00000 |
|
31.0000 - -1.0973 bias |
29.0000 - 2.9564 bias |
23.0000 - 1.7282 bias |
7.0000 - -0.9238 bias |
6.5000 - 3.7315 bias |
2.5000 - 0.4142 bias |
0.0000 - -0.6030 bias |
0.5000 - -0.3305 bias |
0.0000 - -0.4144 bias |
0.5000 - 0.1581 bias |
0.0000 - -0.4847 bias |
| TOTAL |
31.490600 |
24.837700 |
21.559300 |
9.013950 |
4.409550 |
2.669050 |
0.780750 |
0.565850 |
0.414400 |
0.403500 |
0.314350 |