Poll Average Details- London Mayor - 2016-05-05 16:00:00
The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window -
the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0.
If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals
in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively
be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus).
[TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed.
Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.
Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal |
Sadiq Khan | Zac Goldsmith | Peter Whittle | Caroline Pidgeon | Siân Berry | George Galloway | Paul Golding | David Furness | Sophie Walker | Janek Zylinski | Lee Harris | Ankit Love |
YouGov | 5/4 | X 1.00000 |
|
43.0000 - -3.7254 bias |
32.0000 - -2.2623 bias |
7.0000 - 0.5460 bias |
6.0000 - 2.5136 bias |
7.0000 - 1.6851 bias |
1.0000 - 0.2139 bias |
1.0000 - 1.0000 bias |
|
2.0000 - 2.0000 bias |
|
1.0000 - 1.0000 bias |
|
Opinium | 5/1 | X 0.95000 |
|
35.0000 - 0.7288 bias |
26.0000 - 0.4420 bias |
4.0000 - 1.8536 bias |
4.0000 - -0.2855 bias |
4.0000 - 0.7193 bias |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survation | 4/25 | X 0.85000 |
|
49.0000 - -0.9298 bias |
34.0000 - -1.6647 bias |
5.0000 - 0.8063 bias |
3.0000 - 1.5083 bias |
3.0000 - 0.8266 bias |
2.0000 - 1.0254 bias |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Savanta ComRes | 4/3 | X 0.48333 |
|
44.0000 - 1.7818 bias |
37.0000 - -0.4062 bias |
5.0000 - 0.8720 bias |
7.0000 - 0.8389 bias |
4.0000 - 1.5710 bias |
2.0000 - 2.0202 bias |
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
43.287970 |
32.569662 |
4.280079 |
3.594955 |
3.488215 |
0.687749 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |