Poll Average Details- CA Proposition 34: End the Death Penalty - 2012-11-06 22:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal No Yes
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)10/21X 1.00000   43.0000 - -2.6818 bias 44.0000 - 2.6818 bias
M4Strategies10/10X 0.81667   48.1000 - 0.9028 bias 42.9000 - -0.9028 bias
Field Poll9/18X 0.45000   45.0000 - -1.3653 bias 42.0000 - 1.3653 bias
Survey USA9/11X 0.33333   46.0000 - -5.1994 bias 30.0000 - 6.2338 bias
TOTAL 46.983474 39.730065