Poll Average Details- Mexico City Head of Government - 2012-07-01 18:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Miguel Ángel Mancera Espinosa Beatriz Elena Paredes Rangel Isabel Miranda de Wallace Rosario Guerra Díaz Blank - Void
Reforma6/10X 1.00000   58.0000 - 2.0582 bias 13.0000 - 0.6533 bias 12.0000 - -0.6004 bias 1.0000 - 1.3459 bias  
El Universal5/17X 0.60000   55.0000 - 1.2310 bias 20.0000 - 2.6563 bias 11.5000 - 0.1101 bias 1.8000 - 0.4012 bias  
Milenio5/12X 0.51667   49.6000 - -0.8660 bias 22.6000 - 5.9941 bias 12.0000 - -1.5091 bias 2.4000 - 0.3814 bias  
TOTAL 53.989276 14.802820 12.479075 0.725822 0.000000