Poll Average Details- AB Legislative Assembly - Popular Vote - 2012-04-23 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Alberta Progressive Conservative Association	Wildrose Party	Alberta Liberal Party	Alberta New Democratic Party	Alberta Party	Green Party of Alberta	Independent	Communist Party	Separation Party	Alberta Social Credit
Forum Research	4/22	X 1.00000		36.0000 - 0.1942 bias	38.0000 - 1.6701 bias	10.0000 - -1.9734 bias	12.0000 - 1.5050 bias	3.0000 - 1.2643 bias
Angus Reid	4/21	X 0.98333		32.0000 - -9.2532 bias	41.0000 - 8.9399 bias	13.0000 - 1.6021 bias	11.0000 - 2.3125 bias
Campaign Research	4/19	X 0.95000		34.0000 - -8.9033 bias	41.0000 - 7.9788 bias	11.0000 - 1.4470 bias	11.0000 - 1.5183 bias
Abacus Data	4/19	X 0.95000		31.0000 - -4.3036 bias	41.0000 - 7.9788 bias	12.0000 - -4.9714 bias	13.0000 - 7.1125 bias
Think HQ Public Affairs	4/18	X 0.93333		33.0000 - -9.1056 bias	41.0000 - 5.0869 bias	11.0000 - 2.4071 bias	11.0000 - 3.1173 bias	3.0000 - 1.7545 bias
Leger Marketing	4/16	X 0.90000		36.0000 - -6.9491 bias	42.0000 - 3.5920 bias	9.0000 - 1.7985 bias	10.0000 - 0.1085 bias	2.0000 - -0.2693 bias	0.3000 - bias
Return on Insight	4/14	X 0.86667		36.0000 - -5.3733 bias	43.0000 - 2.6601 bias	11.0000 - 4.0209 bias	9.0000 - -1.2763 bias	1.0000 - 0.8019 bias
TOTAL				40.173814	35.490119	10.470297	8.932270	1.381682	0.300000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000