Poll Average Details- US President - Popular Vote - 2004-11-02 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal George W. Bush John F. KerryJohn F. Kerry Michael A. Peroutka Michael Badnarik Jeffrey Diket Others James E. Harris Walter F. "Walt" Brown Stanford E. Andress Earl F. Dodge Jr. Joe C. "Average Joe" Schriner None of These Candidates Leonard Peltier Bill Van Auken Gene C. Amondson Charles "CJ" Jay John Parker Róger Calero Lawson Mitchell Bone Richard A. Duncan Thomas J. Harens Thomas Zych Martin Wishnatsky Deborah E. Allen John J. Kennedy Andrew J. Falk Ralph Nader David K. Cobb Peter M. Camejo
TIPP11/1X 1.00000   50.1000 - 0.4288 bias 48.0000 - 0.1636 bias                                               1.1000 - 0.7281 bias  
Battleground Poll (Lake and Goeas)11/1X 1.00000   51.2000 - 0.7931 bias 47.8000 - 1.0087 bias                                               0.5000 - 0.1218 bias  
Rasmussen Reports11/1X 1.00000   50.2000 - 1.5977 bias 48.5000 - 0.4180 bias                                                  
Marist Institute11/1X 1.00000   49.0000 - -0.4397 bias 50.0000 - 0.7635 bias                                               1.0000 - 3.3151 bias  
Harris Interactive11/1X 1.00000   47.0000 - -0.1209 bias 50.0000 - 0.3558 bias   1.0000 - 0.9430 bias                                           1.0000 - 1.4099 bias  
NBC News/Wall Street Journal (Hart & McInturff)10/31X 0.98333   48.0000 - -0.7288 bias 47.0000 - 1.7306 bias                                               1.0000 - 0.6609 bias  
Gallup10/31X 0.98333   49.0000 - 2.8840 bias 47.0000 - -2.6491 bias                                               1.0000 - 0.4705 bias  
FOX News10/31X 0.98333   46.0000 - 0.9686 bias 48.0000 - -0.1896 bias                                               1.0000 - 0.6697 bias  
New York Times - CBS News10/31X 0.98333   47.0000 - -1.4721 bias 46.0000 - 2.0567 bias                                               1.0000 - 3.6328 bias  
Democracy Corps10/31X 0.98333   47.0000 - 1.6464 bias 48.0000 - -2.3369 bias                                               1.0000 - 1.0801 bias  
American Research Group10/30X 0.96667   48.0000 - 0.7892 bias 49.0000 - -0.0031 bias                                                  
Opinion Dynamics (FOX)10/30X 0.96667   46.0000 - 1.7926 bias 46.0000 - -0.8684 bias                                               1.0000 - 0.8561 bias  
Zogby International10/30X 0.96667   48.0000 - 0.0434 bias 48.0000 - 0.8870 bias 0.1000 - -0.0149 bias                                             1.2000 - 3.0300 bias 0.2000 - 1.0598 bias
Washington Post/ABC News10/30X 0.96667   48.0000 - -1.2476 bias 48.0000 - 2.1552 bias                                                  
Pew Research10/30X 0.96667   48.0000 - -1.7614 bias 45.0000 - 1.4784 bias                                               1.0000 - 0.6831 bias  
Newsweek10/29X 0.95000   50.0000 - 1.2099 bias 44.0000 - -2.0497 bias                                               1.0000 - 0.6719 bias  
YouGov10/27X 0.91667   45.0000 - 0.0288 bias 49.0000 - 1.4134 bias                                               1.0000 - 1.2001 bias  
LA Times10/23X 0.85000   48.0000 - 1.0817 bias 48.0000 - 1.0135 bias                                               1.0000 - 0.6502 bias  
Princeton Survey Research Associates10/22X 0.83333   48.0000 - -1.1956 bias 47.0000 - 1.8159 bias                                                  
TIME Poll - SRBI Public Affairs10/21X 0.81667   51.0000 - -1.1362 bias 46.0000 - 0.9250 bias                                               2.0000 - 1.6394 bias  
Associated Press10/20X 0.80000   46.0000 - 0.4679 bias 49.0000 - 1.4729 bias                                                  
AP - Ipsos10/20X 0.80000   46.0000 - -26.7815 bias 49.0000 - -23.2325 bias                                               2.0000 - 0.6502 bias  
Time-CNN10/19X 0.78333   51.0000 - 0.8278 bias 46.0000 - -2.2822 bias                                               2.0000 - 3.4866 bias  
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)10/18X 0.76667   47.0000 - -1.6043 bias 50.0000 - 2.2053 bias                                               1.0000 - 4.5188 bias  
Ipsos-Reid10/14X 0.70000   42.0000 - -25.8737 bias 52.0000 - -23.3991 bias                                                  
CBS News10/11X 0.65000   48.0000 - -0.2073 bias 45.0000 - 0.2313 bias                                               2.0000 - 1.7245 bias  
International Communications Research (ICR)10/11X 0.65000   48.0000 - 0.8828 bias 43.0000 - -2.0306 bias                                               2.0000 - 1.7698 bias  
Tarrance Group (R)10/1X 0.48333   51.0000 - 1.0477 bias 44.0000 - -0.5219 bias                                               2.0000 - 1.6811 bias  
Los Angeles Times9/28X 0.43333   51.0000 - 1.3341 bias 46.0000 - 4.8655 bias                                                  
Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor9/27X 0.41667   45.0000 - -0.0352 bias 46.0000 - 0.5144 bias                                                  
TOTAL 50.456448 49.877542 0.114900 0.057000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.260651 -0.859800