[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Richard Burr | Deborah K. Ross | Sean Haugh |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

SurveyMonkey | 11/7 | X 1.00000 | 43.0000 - -2.2023 bias | 47.0000 - 2.5998 bias | 6.0000 - 3.8473 bias | |

Quinnipiac University | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 47.0000 - -0.2103 bias | 47.0000 - 1.0253 bias | ||

Siena Research Institute | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 45.0000 - 0.2393 bias | 46.0000 - 0.1750 bias | ||

Pulse Opinion Research | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 46.0000 - 1.6183 bias | 47.0000 - -0.2534 bias | ||

Gravis Marketing | 11/4 | X 0.95000 | 47.0000 - 0.2589 bias | 48.0000 - 1.1154 bias | ||

Public Policy Polling | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 48.0000 - -0.1428 bias | 45.0000 - 1.2250 bias | ||

Survey USA | 10/31 | X 0.88333 | 49.0000 - 0.3512 bias | 43.0000 - 0.5321 bias | 2.0000 - 1.3467 bias | |

YouGov | 10/28 | X 0.83333 | 44.0000 - 0.0142 bias | 44.0000 - 1.4293 bias | ||

Elon University | 10/27 | X 0.81667 | 43.5000 - 0.1034 bias | 39.9000 - 1.4284 bias | 3.0000 - -0.1425 bias | |

Emerson College | 10/27 | X 0.81667 | 48.0000 - 0.6280 bias | 44.0000 - 1.1763 bias | ||

Marist Institute | 10/26 | X 0.80000 | 48.0000 - -0.5558 bias | 48.0000 - 0.7623 bias | ||

Monmouth University | 10/23 | X 0.75000 | 49.0000 - -0.9087 bias | 43.0000 - 1.9539 bias | 2.0000 - 0.8035 bias | |

Lucid | 10/18 | X 0.66667 | 46.0000 - -3.2437 bias | 44.0000 - 2.5143 bias | ||

Civitas Institute (R) | 10/16 | X 0.63333 | 44.0000 - -1.8372 bias | 37.0000 - 1.5441 bias | 4.0000 - 1.4738 bias | |

Opinion Research Corporation (CNN) | 10/15 | X 0.61667 | 48.0000 - 0.4310 bias | 47.0000 - 0.8611 bias | ||

Suffolk University | 10/12 | X 0.56667 | 40.0000 - -2.3339 bias | 36.0000 - 1.8204 bias | 6.0000 - 1.1462 bias | |

High Point University | 10/6 | X 0.46667 | 47.0000 - -1.6580 bias | 42.0000 - -0.0133 bias | 6.0000 - 3.3889 bias | |

Selzer & Co. | 10/2 | X 0.40000 | 44.0000 - -0.5569 bias | 46.0000 - 1.2864 bias | ||

Meredith College | 9/22 | X 0.23333 | 35.0000 - -1.8995 bias | 38.0000 - 4.2428 bias | ||

Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News | 9/20 | X 0.20000 | 43.0000 - -0.6256 bias | 37.0000 - 1.1688 bias | 6.0000 - 1.4649 bias | |

TOTAL | 46.266589 | 43.049225 | 2.382974 |