Poll Average Details- AZ US Senate - 2016-11-08 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	John McCain John McCain	Ann Kirkpatrick Ann Kirkpatrick	Gary W. Swing	Leonard A. Clark	Sheila Bilyeu	Santos Enrique Chavez	Sydney Dudikoff	Anthony Camboni	Gene Scott, II	Selena Lopez	Pat Quinn
SurveyMonkey	11/7	X 1.00000		50.0000 - -2.2024 bias	45.0000 - 2.6000 bias
Data Orbital	11/6	X 0.98333		56.0000 - -0.0317 bias	44.0000 - 0.7930 bias
Insights West	11/6	X 0.98333		50.0000 - 1.7476 bias	42.0000 - 0.5620 bias
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)	11/1	X 0.90000		54.0000 - 0.4312 bias	41.0000 - 0.8608 bias
Lucid	11/1	X 0.90000		52.0000 - -2.8535 bias	40.0000 - 2.1557 bias
Emerson College	10/31	X 0.88333		46.0000 - 0.6906 bias	40.0000 - 0.8084 bias
YouGov	10/28	X 0.83333		43.0000 - 0.0288 bias	38.0000 - 1.4134 bias
Monmouth University	10/24	X 0.76667		50.0000 - -0.9091 bias	40.0000 - 1.9679 bias	4.0000 - 0.1881 bias
Arizona State University	10/15	X 0.61667		51.5000 - -0.8570 bias	40.0000 - 1.2289 bias
HighGround	10/14	X 0.60000		45.3000 - -0.4362 bias	35.3000 - -0.5387 bias	6.3000 - 1.5522 bias
TOTAL				50.423620	39.625688	4.222783	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000