Poll Average Details- UK House of Commons - Popular Vote - 2015-05-07 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Conservative Party Labour Party UK Independence Party Liberal Democrats Green Party of England & Wales Scottish National Party Plaid Cymru British National Party Others Democratic Unionist Party Sinn Féin Social Democratic and Labour Party Scottish Green Party Ulster Unionist Party Alliance Party of Northern Ireland Liberal Party Workers' Party of Ireland Scottish Socialist Party Independent Socialist Labour Party English Democrats British National Front Monster Raving Loony Communist Party of Britain Green Party of Northern Ireland Christian Peoples Alliance Christian Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Mebyon Kernow Traditional Unionist Voice Lincolnshire Independents Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Pirate Party UK People Before Profit Alliance Citizens Independent Social Thought Alliance National Health Action Party Yorkshire Party North East Party Northern Party Communities United Party Left Unity Liberty Great Britain Independence from Europe Respect Unity Coalition
Lord Ashcroft Polls (Con)5/6X 1.00000   33.0000 - -2.4223 bias 33.0000 - 1.5524 bias 11.0000 - 0.5554 bias 10.0000 - 0.9764 bias 6.0000 - 0.5757 bias 5.0000 - -0.4653 bias 1.0000 - 0.4183 bias                                                                          
Survation5/5X 0.98333   32.6000 - -1.6647 bias 33.7000 - -0.9298 bias 15.6000 - 0.8063 bias 8.9000 - 1.5083 bias 3.8000 - 0.8266 bias 4.3000 - 1.6993 bias 0.0000 - 0.9640 bias 0.0000 - -0.0054 bias                                                                       0.0000 - 1.0254 bias
Populus5/3X 0.95000   34.0000 - 1.6886 bias 34.0000 - 2.9843 bias 13.0000 - -2.4322 bias 10.0000 - 2.5834 bias 5.0000 - 1.3795 bias 4.0000 - 2.5464 bias                                                                            
Ipsos MORI4/29X 0.88333   35.0000 - -1.1045 bias 30.0000 - -2.3889 bias 10.0000 - -0.7943 bias 8.0000 - 0.8073 bias 8.0000 - 1.4720 bias 6.0000 - 2.5783 bias 1.0000 - 0.4739 bias                                                                          
YouGov4/29X 0.88333   35.0000 - -2.2623 bias 34.0000 - -3.7254 bias 12.0000 - 0.5460 bias 9.0000 - 2.5136 bias 4.0000 - 1.6851 bias 5.0000 - -2.1958 bias   0.0000 - 0.1919 bias                                                                       0.0000 - 0.2139 bias
Savanta ComRes4/28X 0.86667   35.0000 - -0.4062 bias 35.0000 - 1.7818 bias 11.0000 - 0.8720 bias 7.0000 - 0.8389 bias 6.0000 - 1.5710 bias 3.0000 - 0.0331 bias 1.0000 - 0.0016 bias 0.0000 - -1.0829 bias                                                                        
Opinium4/17X 0.68333   36.0000 - 0.4420 bias 32.0000 - 0.7288 bias 13.0000 - 1.8536 bias 8.0000 - -0.2855 bias 5.0000 - 0.7193 bias 4.0000 - 2.3101 bias 1.0000 - -0.1554 bias 0.0000 - -0.0054 bias                                                                        
Panelbase4/9X 0.55000   31.0000 - 0.8251 bias 37.0000 - 4.4003 bias 16.0000 - 2.2367 bias 8.0000 - -2.5222 bias 4.0000 - -1.1781 bias 3.0000 - -0.8455 bias 0.6000 - -0.2351 bias                                                                          
TNS4/7X 0.51667   30.0000 - -6.4999 bias 33.0000 - 2.8892 bias 19.0000 - 6.5511 bias 8.0000 - 0.2121 bias 4.0000 - 0.4199 bias 4.0000 - -0.6967 bias 1.0000 - 0.4183 bias                                                                          
TOTAL 34.859714 32.876213 12.259824 7.685661 4.245121 3.697052 0.458324 0.227708 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.641387