[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Kathleen A. McGinty Joseph A. Sestak | Pat Toomey Pat Toomey | Edward T. Clifford, III |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

SurveyMonkey | 11/7 | X 1.00000 | 49.0000 - 2.3995 bias | 45.0000 - -2.7710 bias | ||

Pulse Opinion Research | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 42.0000 - -0.2536 bias | 46.0000 - 1.6182 bias | ||

YouGov | 11/5 | X 0.96667 | 47.0000 - 1.3621 bias | 46.0000 - 0.0717 bias | ||

Muhlenberg College | 11/4 | X 0.95000 | 42.0000 - -1.1484 bias | 43.0000 - 2.0125 bias | ||

Clarity Campaign Labs | 11/4 | X 0.95000 | 46.0000 - 4.0990 bias | 43.0000 - -1.3326 bias | ||

Harper Polling | 11/3 | X 0.93333 | 44.0000 - 1.2618 bias | 44.0000 - -3.1660 bias | 6.0000 - 1.6639 bias | |

Gravis Marketing | 11/3 | X 0.93333 | 45.0000 - 0.7560 bias | 43.0000 - 0.5484 bias | ||

Quinnipiac University | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 48.0000 - 0.3688 bias | 47.0000 - 0.1363 bias | ||

Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R) | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 47.0000 - 1.5519 bias | 41.0000 - -1.4142 bias | 5.0000 - 2.0252 bias | |

Public Policy Polling | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 46.0000 - 0.9088 bias | 44.0000 - 0.0973 bias | ||

Monmouth University | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 47.0000 - 1.2762 bias | 44.0000 - -0.3486 bias | 3.0000 - 1.1165 bias | |

Opinion Research Corporation (CNN) | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 51.0000 - 0.8611 bias | 46.0000 - 0.4310 bias | ||

Franklin & Marshall College | 10/30 | X 0.86667 | 47.0000 - 0.4126 bias | 35.0000 - -0.7416 bias | 1.0000 - 0.3915 bias | |

Emerson College | 10/26 | X 0.80000 | 45.0000 - 0.7363 bias | 43.0000 - 0.7826 bias | ||

Siena Research Institute | 10/25 | X 0.78333 | 47.0000 - -0.5836 bias | 44.0000 - 0.9493 bias | ||

Selzer & Co. | 10/11 | X 0.55000 | 47.0000 - 1.3127 bias | 45.0000 - -0.6990 bias | ||

Lucid | 10/10 | X 0.53333 | 44.0000 - 2.5143 bias | 44.0000 - -3.2437 bias | ||

Marist Institute | 10/6 | X 0.46667 | 48.0000 - 0.4625 bias | 44.0000 - -0.3584 bias | ||

Mercyhurst College | 9/23 | X 0.25000 | 42.0000 - 2.2669 bias | 43.0000 - -1.7215 bias | ||

TOTAL | 45.084595 | 44.093606 | 2.485240 |