Poll Average Details- PA US Senate - 2016-11-08 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Kathleen A. McGinty Joseph A. SestakPat Toomey Pat ToomeyEdward T. Clifford, III
SurveyMonkey11/7X 1.00000   49.0000 - 2.6000 bias 45.0000 - -2.2024 bias  
Pulse Opinion Research11/6X 0.98333   42.0000 - -0.2544 bias 46.0000 - 1.6194 bias  
YouGov11/5X 0.96667   47.0000 - 1.4134 bias 46.0000 - 0.0288 bias  
Clarity Campaign Labs11/4X 0.95000   46.0000 - 3.9429 bias 43.0000 - -1.3124 bias  
Muhlenberg College11/4X 0.95000   42.0000 - -0.6942 bias 43.0000 - 1.6290 bias  
Gravis Marketing11/3X 0.93333   45.0000 - 1.1590 bias 43.0000 - 0.2608 bias  
Harper Polling11/3X 0.93333   44.0000 - 1.2618 bias 44.0000 - -3.1660 bias 6.0000 - 1.6639 bias
Quinnipiac University11/1X 0.90000   48.0000 - 1.0754 bias 47.0000 - -0.2682 bias  
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)11/1X 0.90000   51.0000 - 0.8608 bias 46.0000 - 0.4312 bias  
Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R)11/1X 0.90000   47.0000 - 1.4286 bias 41.0000 - -1.1849 bias 5.0000 - 1.6868 bias
Monmouth University11/1X 0.90000   47.0000 - 1.9679 bias 44.0000 - -0.9091 bias 3.0000 - 0.8035 bias
Public Policy Polling11/1X 0.90000   46.0000 - 1.1680 bias 44.0000 - -0.1800 bias  
Franklin & Marshall College10/30X 0.86667   47.0000 - 0.8112 bias 35.0000 - -0.8927 bias 1.0000 - 0.3915 bias
Emerson College10/26X 0.80000   45.0000 - 0.8084 bias 43.0000 - 0.6906 bias  
Siena Research Institute10/25X 0.78333   47.0000 - 0.4840 bias 44.0000 - -0.0165 bias  
Selzer & Co.10/11X 0.55000   47.0000 - 1.0019 bias 45.0000 - -0.2736 bias  
Lucid10/10X 0.53333   44.0000 - 2.1557 bias 44.0000 - -2.8535 bias  
Marist Institute10/6X 0.46667   48.0000 - 0.7635 bias 44.0000 - -0.4397 bias  
Mercyhurst College9/23X 0.25000   42.0000 - 2.2669 bias 43.0000 - -1.7215 bias  
TOTAL 44.870791 44.194062 2.648090