Poll Average Details- PA US Senate - 2016-11-08 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Kathleen A. McGinty Joseph A. SestakPat Toomey Pat ToomeyEdward T. Clifford, III
SurveyMonkey11/7X 1.00000   49.0000 - 2.3995 bias 45.0000 - -2.7711 bias  
Pulse Opinion Research11/6X 0.98333   42.0000 - -0.2536 bias 46.0000 - 1.6182 bias  
YouGov11/5X 0.96667   47.0000 - 1.3622 bias 46.0000 - 0.0715 bias  
Muhlenberg College11/4X 0.95000   42.0000 - -1.1484 bias 43.0000 - 2.0125 bias  
Clarity Campaign Labs11/4X 0.95000   46.0000 - 4.0990 bias 43.0000 - -1.3326 bias  
Gravis Marketing11/3X 0.93333   45.0000 - 0.8344 bias 43.0000 - 0.4601 bias  
Harper Polling11/3X 0.93333   44.0000 - 1.2618 bias 44.0000 - -3.1660 bias 6.0000 - 1.6639 bias
Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R)11/1X 0.90000   47.0000 - 1.5519 bias 41.0000 - -1.4142 bias 5.0000 - 2.0252 bias
Public Policy Polling11/1X 0.90000   46.0000 - 0.9088 bias 44.0000 - 0.0973 bias  
Monmouth University11/1X 0.90000   47.0000 - 1.2761 bias 44.0000 - -0.3487 bias 3.0000 - 1.0789 bias
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)11/1X 0.90000   51.0000 - 0.8610 bias 46.0000 - 0.4309 bias  
Quinnipiac University11/1X 0.90000   48.0000 - 0.3697 bias 47.0000 - 0.1355 bias  
Franklin & Marshall College10/30X 0.86667   47.0000 - 0.4126 bias 35.0000 - -0.7416 bias 1.0000 - 0.3915 bias
Emerson College10/26X 0.80000   45.0000 - 0.7354 bias 43.0000 - 0.8410 bias  
Siena Research Institute10/25X 0.78333   47.0000 - -0.5836 bias 44.0000 - 0.9493 bias  
Selzer & Co.10/11X 0.55000   47.0000 - 1.3127 bias 45.0000 - -0.6990 bias  
Lucid10/10X 0.53333   44.0000 - 2.5143 bias 44.0000 - -3.2437 bias  
Marist Institute10/6X 0.46667   48.0000 - 0.4633 bias 44.0000 - -0.3594 bias  
Mercyhurst College9/23X 0.25000   42.0000 - 2.2669 bias 43.0000 - -1.7215 bias  
TOTAL 45.079839 44.096021 2.494640