[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Joe Heck William "Bill" Tarbell | Catherine Cortez Masto None of These Candidates | None of These Candidates | Tom Jones | Tony Gumina | Thomas "Tom" Sawyer | Jarrod M. Williams |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

SurveyMonkey | 11/7 | X 1.00000 | 45.0000 - -2.7711 bias | 50.0000 - 2.3995 bias | ||||||

Gravis Marketing | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 43.0000 - 0.4601 bias | 49.0000 - 0.8344 bias | ||||||

Pulse Opinion Research | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 45.0000 - 1.6182 bias | 45.0000 - -0.2536 bias | ||||||

Emerson College | 11/5 | X 0.96667 | 47.0000 - 0.8410 bias | 48.0000 - 0.7354 bias | ||||||

Opinion Research Corporation (CNN) | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 49.0000 - 0.4309 bias | 47.0000 - 0.8610 bias | ||||||

Public Policy Polling | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 44.0000 - 0.0973 bias | 47.0000 - 0.9088 bias | ||||||

JMC Enterprises | 11/1 | X 0.90000 | 43.0000 - 0.4026 bias | 45.0000 - -0.0282 bias | 4.0000 - 1.5686 bias | 1.0000 - -0.4702 bias | ||||

Marist Institute | 10/24 | X 0.76667 | 49.0000 - -0.3594 bias | 42.0000 - 0.4633 bias | ||||||

Bendixen & Associates | 10/23 | X 0.75000 | 44.0000 - 1.2125 bias | 45.0000 - 3.0357 bias | ||||||

Rasmussen Reports | 10/22 | X 0.73333 | 41.0000 - 1.6093 bias | 43.0000 - 0.4148 bias | ||||||

Monmouth University | 10/17 | X 0.65000 | 45.0000 - -0.3487 bias | 42.0000 - 1.2761 bias | ||||||

YouGov | 10/14 | X 0.60000 | 39.0000 - 0.0715 bias | 39.0000 - 1.3622 bias | ||||||

Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 10/12 | X 0.56667 | 47.0000 - 2.5105 bias | 44.0000 - -1.4814 bias | ||||||

Hart Research (D) | 10/2 | X 0.40000 | 47.0000 - 1.8635 bias | 46.0000 - 0.7267 bias | ||||||

Suffolk University | 9/29 | X 0.35000 | 38.0000 - -2.4721 bias | 35.0000 - 1.8265 bias | 4.0000 - 1.6959 bias | |||||

Anderson Robbins (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News | 9/20 | X 0.20000 | 43.0000 - -0.2043 bias | 36.0000 - 0.8627 bias | 5.0000 - 1.8908 bias | 6.0000 - 5.1212 bias | ||||

Insights West | 9/14 | X 0.10000 | 43.0000 - 1.7475 bias | 39.0000 - 0.5620 bias | ||||||

TOTAL | 44.280271 | 44.140330 | 2.494162 | 1.362673 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |