[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Tammy Duckworth | Mark Kirk | Kent McMillen | Scott Summers | Chad Koppie | Patricia Elaine Beard | Jim Brown | Christopher Aguayo | Susana Sandoval | Eric K. J. Stewart |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

SurveyMonkey | 11/7 | X 1.00000 | 56.0000 - 2.3995 bias | 39.0000 - -2.7711 bias | |||||||||

Emerson College | 10/30 | X 0.86667 | 54.0000 - 0.7354 bias | 36.0000 - 0.8410 bias | |||||||||

Loras College | 10/27 | X 0.81667 | 42.0000 - 3.1867 bias | 34.0000 - -1.2295 bias | |||||||||

Victory Research | 10/18 | X 0.66667 | 49.8000 - -1.7054 bias | 39.1000 - -0.6003 bias | 2.0000 - 1.1528 bias | 1.2000 - -0.1627 bias | |||||||

GS Strategy Group (R) | 10/5 | X 0.45000 | X 1/2 | 41.0000 - -1.0594 bias | 37.0000 - 3.4893 bias | 4.0000 - 1.7757 bias | 2.0000 - 0.5250 bias | ||||||

Southern Illinois University | 10/2 | X 0.40000 | 48.0000 - 0.8155 bias | 34.0000 - -1.5962 bias | 3.0000 - 0.7199 bias | 2.0000 - 0.4227 bias | |||||||

Normington, Petts & Associates (D) | 9/29 | X 0.35000 | X 1/2 | 46.0000 - 4.1176 bias | 37.0000 - -1.7541 bias | ||||||||

TOTAL | 48.545590 | 37.600051 | 1.530819 | 1.448719 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |