Poll Average Details- AZ US President - 2004-11-02 23:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	George W. Bush	John F. Kerry John F. Kerry	Michael Badnarik	Ralph Nader	David K. Cobb
Survey USA	10/30	X 1.00000		56.0000 - 0.3265 bias	41.0000 - 0.5274 bias
Rasmussen Reports	10/26	X 0.93333		50.0000 - 1.5977 bias	45.0000 - 0.4180 bias	3.0000 - 1.6402 bias
Arizona State University	10/21	X 0.85000		47.0000 - -0.8570 bias	42.0000 - 1.2289 bias	1.0000 - 0.1090 bias
Market Soultions Group	10/19	X 0.81667		47.0000 - -0.8464 bias	40.0000 - 1.5802 bias
Zogby Interactive	10/17	X 0.78333		49.7000 - 0.8374 bias	47.4000 - 0.0637 bias
Northern Arizona University	10/11	X 0.68333		49.0000 - 2.5498 bias	44.0000 - -0.2921 bias	1.0000 - -1.4408 bias
Arizona Republic	10/4	X 0.56667		48.0000 - -1.3190 bias	38.0000 - 1.9910 bias
KAET-TV	9/26	X 0.43333		53.0000 - 2.7393 bias	38.0000 - -3.0925 bias	1.0000 - 0.4979 bias
Mason-Dixon	9/16	X 0.26667		50.0000 - 0.8543 bias	39.0000 - 0.4277 bias
American Research Group	9/14	X 0.23333		49.0000 - 0.7892 bias	43.0000 - -0.0031 bias
TOTAL				49.446768	41.724715	1.348949	0.000000	0.000000