Poll Average Details- IL US President - 2004-11-02 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	John F. Kerry John F. Kerry	George W. Bush George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Michael Badnarik	Peter M. Camejo	David K. Cobb	Margaret Trowe	Michael A. Peroutka	Lawson Mitchell Bone	John J. Kennedy	Ernest Virag	David Cook	Joann Breivogel	Robert M. Christensen
Survey USA	10/29	X 1.00000		54.0000 - 0.5274 bias	42.0000 - 0.3265 bias
Research 2000	10/28	X 0.98333		54.0000 - 1.1463 bias	40.0000 - 0.1379 bias		1.0000 - -0.0712 bias
Richard Day Research	10/21	X 0.86667		52.0000 - 2.0170 bias	42.0000 - -2.3560 bias
Market Shares Corp	10/19	X 0.83333		50.0000 - -0.1166 bias	42.0000 - -0.3029 bias
Rasmussen Reports	10/4	X 0.58333		52.0000 - 0.4180 bias	41.0000 - 1.5977 bias
Chicago Tribune-WGN-TV	9/20	X 0.35000		49.0000 - 0.2330 bias	40.0000 - 0.4652 bias
American Research Group	9/16	X 0.28333		49.0000 - -0.0031 bias	43.0000 - 0.7892 bias	2.0000 - 0.6757 bias
TOTAL				51.340816	41.499407	1.324300	1.071200	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000