Poll Average Details- MA US Senate - Special Election - 2010-01-19 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Scott Brown	Martha Coakley	Joseph L. "Joe" Kennedy	Write-In
Public Policy Polling	1/17	X 1.00000		51.0000 - -0.1800 bias	46.0000 - 1.1680 bias
Research 2000	1/17	X 1.00000		48.0000 - 0.1379 bias	48.0000 - 1.1463 bias	3.0000 - 2.0364 bias
American Research Group	1/17	X 1.00000		52.0000 - 0.7892 bias	45.0000 - -0.0031 bias	2.0000 - 1.0263 bias
CrossTarget (R)	1/17	X 1.00000		51.9000 - 3.2360 bias	42.3000 - -2.1909 bias
Insider Advantage	1/17	X 1.00000		52.2000 - 0.0480 bias	43.1000 - -0.0455 bias	1.9000 - 0.9609 bias
Merriman River Group (MRG)	1/15	X 0.96667		50.8000 - 4.0053 bias	41.2000 - -2.9714 bias	2.0000 - 1.1338 bias
Suffolk University	1/13	X 0.93333		50.0000 - -2.1317 bias	46.0000 - 1.6356 bias	3.0000 - 2.0364 bias
Rasmussen Reports	1/11	X 0.90000		47.0000 - 1.5977 bias	49.0000 - 0.4180 bias	3.0000 - 2.0364 bias
Mellman Group (D)	1/10	X 0.88333		36.0000 - -2.5182 bias	50.0000 - 3.6270 bias	6.0000 - 5.5279 bias
University of New Hampshire	1/6	X 0.81667		36.0000 - -2.2994 bias	53.0000 - 2.6652 bias	5.0000 - 3.1108 bias
TOTAL				47.486774	45.707828	0.992026	0.000000