Poll Average Details- AR US Senate - 2014-11-04 19:30:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Tom Cotton Tom CottonMark Pryor Mark Swaney Nathan LaFrance Write-In
Opinion Research Associates Inc11/1X 1.00000  X 1/2 43.0000 - -3.2528 bias 45.0000 - 4.3331 bias 3.0000 - 0.9911 bias 1.0000 - -0.2840 bias  
Public Policy Polling11/1X 1.00000   49.0000 - -0.1800 bias 41.0000 - 1.1680 bias      
Rasmussen Reports10/29X 0.95000   51.0000 - 1.5977 bias 44.0000 - 0.4180 bias      
University of Arkansas10/27X 0.91667   49.0000 - 2.3219 bias 36.0000 - 1.9662 bias      
YouGov10/23X 0.85000   47.0000 - 0.0288 bias 42.0000 - 1.4134 bias      
Marist Institute10/22X 0.83333   45.0000 - -0.4397 bias 43.0000 - 0.7635 bias      
Talk Business10/16X 0.73333   49.0000 - -1.2463 bias 40.5000 - 0.3217 bias 2.0000 - 1.3653 bias 2.5000 - 0.6769 bias  
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/7X 0.58333   46.0000 - -0.5021 bias 39.0000 - 1.0608 bias 2.0000 - 0.5107 bias 2.0000 - 1.4422 bias  
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/5X 0.55000  X 1/2 42.0000 - 0.4312 bias 45.0000 - 0.8608 bias      
Suffolk University9/23X 0.35000   43.0000 - -2.1317 bias 45.0000 - 1.6356 bias 3.0000 - 0.4664 bias 3.0000 - 1.1435 bias  
Hickman Research9/18X 0.26667  X 1/2 43.0000 - -6.3453 bias 46.0000 - 8.1226 bias      
Gravis Marketing9/11X 0.15000   47.0000 - 0.2608 bias 43.0000 - 1.1590 bias   2.0000 - 1.7089 bias  
Answers Unlimited9/9X 0.11667   42.0000 - -8.4428 bias 46.0000 - 7.4588 bias 2.0000 - 0.6097 bias 2.0000 - 0.5974 bias  
TOTAL 47.417595 40.206865 1.483628 1.299205 0.000000