Poll Average Details- NY District 23 - Special Election - 2009-11-03 18:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Douglas Hoffman Bill Owens Dede Scozzafava Scattering
Public Policy Polling11/1X 1.00000   51.0000 - 6.0906 bias 34.0000 - 0.9088 bias 13.0000 - 0.0973 bias  
Siena Research Institute11/1X 1.00000   41.0000 - 6.7074 bias 36.0000 - -0.5836 bias 6.0000 - 0.9493 bias  
Research 200010/28X 0.93333   32.0000 - -8.7409 bias 33.0000 - 1.1225 bias 21.0000 - 0.1377 bias  
Neighborhood Research (R)10/26X 0.90000   34.0000 - -1.7944 bias 29.0000 - -6.4267 bias 14.0000 - 6.5120 bias  
Basswood Research (R)10/25X 0.88333   31.0000 - -6.2066 bias 27.0000 - -2.9383 bias 20.0000 - 6.0657 bias  
McLaughlin & Associates (R)9/8X 0.10000   19.0000 - -18.4140 bias 20.0000 - -3.4361 bias 30.0000 - 4.1073 bias  
TOTAL 38.626096 33.238811 12.262003 0.000000