Poll Average Details- AK US Senate - 2014-11-04 23:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Daniel S. Sullivan Daniel S. SullivanMark Begich Mark S. Fish Ted Gianoutsos Write-In
Public Policy Polling11/2X 1.00000   46.0000 - 0.0973 bias 45.0000 - 0.9088 bias 2.0000 - 1.0035 bias 2.0000 - 2.9345 bias  
Moore Information (R)10/28X 0.91667  X 1/2 42.0000 - 2.0538 bias 38.0000 - -0.8885 bias 4.0000 - 0.2779 bias    
Ivan Moore Research (D)10/26X 0.88333   42.2000 - -2.7841 bias 50.1000 - 4.3955 bias      
YouGov10/23X 0.83333   48.0000 - 0.0717 bias 44.0000 - 1.3621 bias      
Harstad Strategic (D)10/22X 0.81667  X 1/2 44.0000 - -1.4910 bias 44.0000 - 3.0935 bias 4.0000 - 1.2120 bias    
Hellenthal & Associates (R)10/21X 0.80000   39.2000 - -1.3267 bias 48.6000 - 2.2137 bias 2.8000 - -0.2902 bias 3.7000 - -1.7243 bias  
Rasmussen Reports10/12X 0.65000   48.0000 - 1.6097 bias 45.0000 - 0.4145 bias      
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/7X 0.56667   44.0000 - -0.2043 bias 40.0000 - 0.8627 bias 3.0000 - 1.4581 bias 1.0000 - 1.5246 bias  
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/6X 0.55000   50.0000 - 0.4310 bias 44.0000 - 0.8611 bias      
Dittman Research (R)9/17X 0.23333  X 1/2 49.0000 - 1.8249 bias 43.0000 - 1.9699 bias      
Hays Research Group (D)9/14X 0.18333   36.4000 - -2.4573 bias 40.6000 - 7.8027 bias      
TOTAL 44.957795 42.994724 2.222721 1.313099 0.000000