[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Daniel S. Sullivan Daniel S. Sullivan | Mark Begich | Mark S. Fish | Ted Gianoutsos | Write-In |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Public Policy Polling | 11/2 | X 1.00000 | 46.0000 - 0.0973 bias | 45.0000 - 0.9088 bias | 2.0000 - 1.0035 bias | 2.0000 - 2.9345 bias | ||

Moore Information (R) | 10/28 | X 0.91667 | X 1/2 | 42.0000 - 2.0538 bias | 38.0000 - -0.8885 bias | 4.0000 - 0.2779 bias | ||

Ivan Moore Research (D) | 10/26 | X 0.88333 | 42.2000 - -2.7841 bias | 50.1000 - 4.3955 bias | ||||

YouGov | 10/23 | X 0.83333 | 48.0000 - 0.0717 bias | 44.0000 - 1.3621 bias | ||||

Harstad Strategic (D) | 10/22 | X 0.81667 | X 1/2 | 44.0000 - -1.4910 bias | 44.0000 - 3.0935 bias | 4.0000 - 1.2120 bias | ||

Hellenthal & Associates (R) | 10/21 | X 0.80000 | 39.2000 - -1.3267 bias | 48.6000 - 2.2137 bias | 2.8000 - -0.2902 bias | 3.7000 - -1.7243 bias | ||

Rasmussen Reports | 10/12 | X 0.65000 | 48.0000 - 1.6097 bias | 45.0000 - 0.4145 bias | ||||

Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News | 10/7 | X 0.56667 | 44.0000 - -0.2043 bias | 40.0000 - 0.8627 bias | 3.0000 - 1.4581 bias | 1.0000 - 1.5246 bias | ||

Opinion Research Corporation (CNN) | 10/6 | X 0.55000 | 50.0000 - 0.4310 bias | 44.0000 - 0.8611 bias | ||||

Dittman Research (R) | 9/17 | X 0.23333 | X 1/2 | 49.0000 - 1.8249 bias | 43.0000 - 1.9699 bias | |||

Hays Research Group (D) | 9/14 | X 0.18333 | 36.4000 - -2.4573 bias | 40.6000 - 7.8027 bias | ||||

TOTAL | 44.957795 | 42.994724 | 2.222721 | 1.313099 | 0.000000 |