Poll Average Details- BRA President - Initial Election - 2006-10-01 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	Geraldo Alckmin	Heloísa Helena	Cristovam Buarque	Luciano Bivar	José Maria Eymael	Ana Maria Rangel
Datafolha	9/5	X 1.00000		51.0000 - 0.3983 bias	27.0000 - -0.8318 bias	9.0000 - -0.5795 bias	1.0000 - -0.3661 bias
Ibope	8/31	X 0.91667		48.0000 - -0.2874 bias	25.0000 - -1.7232 bias	9.0000 - -0.6257 bias	1.0000 - -0.4793 bias
Vox Populi	8/27	X 0.85000		50.0000 - 2.2481 bias	25.0000 - -0.5331 bias	9.0000 - -1.1238 bias	2.0000 - -9.9075 bias
Instituto Sensus	8/25	X 0.81667		51.4000 - 1.4358 bias	19.6000 - -1.4358 bias	8.6000 - bias	1.9000 - bias	0.8000 - bias	0.2000 - bias
Zogby International	8/12	X 0.60000		53.0000 - bias	20.0000 - bias	11.0000 - bias
TOTAL				49.735067	24.671818	9.712738	4.017256	0.800000	0.200000	0.000000