Poll Average Details- NC US Senate - 2014-11-04 18:30:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Thomas "Thom" Tillis Thomas "Thom" TillisKay Hagan Ernest T. ReevesSean Haugh John W. Rhodes Write-In David Waddell Barry Gurney
Public Policy Polling11/3X 1.00000   44.0000 - -0.1800 bias 46.0000 - 1.1680 bias 5.0000 - 1.4191 bias        
YouGov10/31X 0.95000   41.4000 - 0.0288 bias 43.5000 - 1.4134 bias          
Civitas Institute (R)10/30X 0.93333   40.0000 - -1.8372 bias 40.0000 - 1.5441 bias 6.0000 - 1.4738 bias        
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/30X 0.93333   42.0000 - -0.5021 bias 43.0000 - 1.0608 bias 4.0000 - 1.4422 bias        
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/30X 0.93333   46.0000 - 0.4312 bias 48.0000 - 0.8608 bias 4.0000 - 2.2808 bias        
Public Opinion Strategies (R)10/27X 0.88333   44.0000 - 2.6066 bias 44.0000 - -1.2825 bias 7.0000 - 2.4568 bias        
Monmouth University10/26X 0.86667   46.0000 - -0.9091 bias 48.0000 - 1.9679 bias 1.0000 - 0.8035 bias        
Elon University10/25X 0.85000   40.7000 - 0.1034 bias 44.7000 - 1.4284 bias          
Survey USA10/25X 0.85000   44.0000 - 0.3265 bias 44.0000 - 0.5274 bias 5.0000 - 1.3296 bias        
Marist Institute10/23X 0.81667   43.0000 - -0.4397 bias 43.0000 - 0.7635 bias 7.0000 - 4.1685 bias        
Gravis Marketing10/17X 0.71667   48.0000 - 0.2608 bias 43.0000 - 1.1590 bias          
High Point University10/9X 0.58333   40.0000 - -1.6580 bias 40.0000 - -0.0133 bias 7.0000 - 3.3889 bias        
Rasmussen Reports10/7X 0.55000   46.0000 - 1.5977 bias 48.0000 - 0.4180 bias          
Morey Group (Lukens Company - R)10/6X 0.53333  X 1/2 37.7000 - -2.6061 bias 40.1000 - 4.7445 bias 2.0000 - -0.9184 bias        
Suffolk University10/6X 0.53333   45.4000 - -2.1317 bias 46.8000 - 1.6356 bias 4.4000 - 1.1435 bias        
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)10/1X 0.45000  X 1/2 41.0000 - -1.6043 bias 45.0000 - 2.2053 bias          
Global Strategy Group (D)9/18X 0.23333   41.0000 - -2.0582 bias 45.0000 - 2.9065 bias 5.0000 - 2.6764 bias        
American Insights9/10X 0.10000   36.0000 - -7.9116 bias 46.0000 - 5.0165 bias 6.0000 - 3.0758 bias        
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)9/6X 0.03333  X 1/2 45.0000 - -2.3099 bias 48.0000 - 2.7672 bias          
TOTAL 43.531670 43.236101 3.007726 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000