Poll Average Details- ND US Senate - 2012-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Rick Berg Rick BergHeidi Heitkamp Heidi Heitkamp Write-In
Mason-Dixon10/28X 1.00000   47.0000 - 0.8876 bias 45.0000 - 0.3444 bias  
Pharos Research Group10/28X 1.00000   47.7000 - 1.0762 bias 49.9000 - 1.6664 bias  
Mellman Group (D)10/24X 0.93333  X 1/2 44.0000 - -2.7353 bias 48.0000 - 3.9970 bias  
Rasmussen Reports10/18X 0.83333   50.0000 - 1.6097 bias 45.0000 - 0.4145 bias  
Forum Communications10/15X 0.78333   49.8000 - 5.6579 bias 39.8000 - -3.7519 bias  
DFM Research9/27X 0.48333  X 1/2 44.0000 - -3.6357 bias 48.0000 - 4.2270 bias  
TOTAL 46.465016 45.149745 0.000000