Poll Average Details- MO US Senate - 2012-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Claire McCaskill Todd Akin Jonathan Dine Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff Bernie Mowinski Charlie L. Bailey William Dean Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. Ted Kimzey
YouGov11/3X 1.00000   52.0000 - 1.3621 bias 42.0000 - 0.0717 bias              
Public Policy Polling11/3X 1.00000   48.0000 - 0.9088 bias 44.0000 - 0.0973 bias 6.0000 - 1.0035 bias            
Survey USA11/3X 1.00000   51.0000 - 0.4044 bias 36.0000 - 0.3780 bias 8.0000 - 1.3866 bias            
We Ask America10/30X 0.93333   48.6000 - -0.1522 bias 45.2000 - 0.7827 bias 6.2000 - 1.2509 bias            
Kiley & Company (D)10/25X 0.85000  X 1/2 53.0000 - 4.5519 bias 39.0000 - -1.1820 bias              
Mason-Dixon10/25X 0.85000   45.0000 - 0.3444 bias 43.0000 - 0.8876 bias 4.0000 - 0.1577 bias            
Rasmussen Reports10/17X 0.71667   51.0000 - 0.4145 bias 43.0000 - 1.6097 bias              
Harstad Strategic (D)10/17X 0.71667  X 1/2 47.0000 - 3.0935 bias 35.0000 - -1.4910 bias 8.0000 - 1.2120 bias            
Wenzel Strategies (R)10/13X 0.65000  X 1/2 44.7000 - -3.2614 bias 48.9000 - 4.5801 bias              
Chilenski Strategies (D)9/20X 0.26667   46.5000 - -0.2073 bias 47.5000 - 4.0840 bias              
TOTAL 48.349570 41.382196 5.294338 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000