Poll Average Details- PA US Senate - 2012-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Bob Casey Jr. Joseph J. "Joe" VodvarkaTom Smith Tom SmithRayburn Smith Osborne G. Hart
Angus Reid11/4X 1.00000   53.0000 - 0.9842 bias 46.0000 - 1.4048 bias    
YouGov11/3X 0.98333   50.0000 - 1.4134 bias 42.0000 - 0.0288 bias    
Muhlenberg College11/3X 0.98333   48.0000 - -0.6942 bias 42.0000 - 1.6290 bias    
Public Policy Polling11/3X 0.98333   52.0000 - 1.1680 bias 44.0000 - -0.1800 bias    
Pulse Opinion Research10/30X 0.91667   46.0000 - -0.2544 bias 45.0000 - 1.6194 bias    
Franklin & Marshall College10/28X 0.88333   46.0000 - 0.8112 bias 35.0000 - -0.8927 bias 2.0000 - 0.3915 bias  
Philadelphia Inquirer10/25X 0.83333   49.0000 - 0.6084 bias 42.0000 - 1.0435 bias    
Rasmussen Reports10/24X 0.81667   46.0000 - 0.4180 bias 45.0000 - 1.5977 bias    
Harstad Strategic (D)10/24X 0.81667  X 1/2 52.0000 - 3.5038 bias 40.0000 - -1.6540 bias    
Wenzel Strategies (R)10/23X 0.80000   45.2000 - -3.2645 bias 44.0000 - 4.5835 bias 2.2000 - -0.1874 bias  
Pharos Research Group10/21X 0.76667   52.1100 - 1.6664 bias 41.8400 - 1.0763 bias    
GS Strategy Group (R)10/18X 0.71667  X 1/2 43.6000 - -0.9260 bias 43.4000 - 2.7186 bias 2.4000 - 1.6802 bias  
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)10/17X 0.70000  X 1/2 52.0000 - 2.7672 bias 39.0000 - -2.3099 bias    
Quinnipiac University10/14X 0.65000   48.0000 - 1.0754 bias 45.0000 - -0.2682 bias    
Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R)10/13X 0.63333  X 1/2 46.0000 - 1.4286 bias 48.0000 - -1.1849 bias    
McLaughlin & Associates (R)10/8X 0.55000  X 1/2 46.0000 - -3.4211 bias 44.0000 - 4.0805 bias    
Public Opinion Strategies (R)10/8X 0.55000   44.0000 - -1.2825 bias 41.0000 - 2.6066 bias    
Siena Research Institute10/5X 0.50000   44.0000 - 0.4840 bias 35.0000 - -0.0165 bias    
Mercyhurst College9/20X 0.25000   42.9000 - 2.2669 bias 28.5000 - -1.7215 bias    
TOTAL 47.761609 41.270697 1.757726 0.000000