Poll Average Details- French President - 2012-04-22 12:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal François Hollande Nicolas Sarkozy Nicolas SarkozyMarine Le Pen Jean-Luc Mélenchon François Bayrou Eva Joly Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Philippe Poutou Nathalie Arthaud Jacques Cheminade
IFOP4/20X 1.00000   27.0000 - -1.0973 bias 27.0000 - 1.7282 bias 16.0000 - -0.9238 bias 13.5000 - 3.7315 bias 10.5000 - 2.6218 bias 3.0000 - 0.4142 bias 1.5000 - -0.3305 bias 1.0000 - 0.1581 bias 0.5000 - -0.4847 bias 0.0000 - -0.2157 bias
Ipsos4/19X 0.98333   29.0000 - -1.1038 bias 25.5000 - -0.0170 bias 16.0000 - 1.8898 bias 14.0000 - 1.0244 bias 10.0000 - 1.9637 bias 2.0000 - -0.1950 bias 1.5000 - -0.5538 bias 1.5000 - 0.6911 bias 0.0000 - -0.2681 bias 0.5000 - 0.1290 bias
TNS Sofres4/19X 0.98333   27.0000 - 0.5959 bias 27.0000 - -0.2667 bias 17.0000 - 1.0251 bias 13.0000 - 1.8945 bias 10.0000 - 0.4116 bias 3.0000 - -0.4264 bias 2.0000 - -0.4980 bias 1.0000 - 0.6300 bias 0.0000 - 0.2114 bias 0.0000 - -0.2157 bias
CSA4/19X 0.98333   28.0000 - 0.3185 bias 25.0000 - -1.7170 bias 16.0000 - 0.2406 bias 14.5000 - 2.7743 bias 10.5000 - 1.6842 bias 2.0000 - -0.8616 bias 1.5000 - 0.1026 bias 1.5000 - 0.4271 bias 1.0000 - 0.7023 bias 0.0000 - -0.2496 bias
Harris Interactive4/19X 0.98333   27.5000 - 0.7771 bias 26.5000 - -1.5227 bias 16.0000 - 0.9692 bias 12.0000 - 0.8945 bias 11.0000 - 1.8728 bias 3.0000 - 0.6914 bias 2.0000 - -0.3534 bias 1.5000 - 0.3315 bias 0.5000 - -0.0121 bias 0.0000 - -0.2157 bias
BVA4/19X 0.98333   30.0000 - 0.6269 bias 26.5000 - -0.6550 bias 14.0000 - 1.4049 bias 14.0000 - 2.0243 bias 10.0000 - 1.6842 bias 2.0000 - -1.0283 bias 2.0000 - -0.1400 bias 1.5000 - 0.3737 bias 0.0000 - -0.0183 bias 0.0000 - -0.2157 bias
LH24/18X 0.96667   27.0000 - -0.4815 bias 26.5000 - -1.1170 bias 15.5000 - 0.0740 bias 15.0000 - 2.0243 bias 10.0000 - 1.9342 bias 2.5000 - -0.5283 bias 1.5000 - -0.2948 bias 1.0000 - 0.4271 bias 1.0000 - 0.5356 bias 0.0000 - -0.2496 bias
OpinionWay4/17X 0.95000   27.5000 - -0.8839 bias 27.5000 - 1.1532 bias 16.0000 - 0.8959 bias 13.0000 - 1.9494 bias 10.0000 - 0.7739 bias 2.0000 - -0.2523 bias 1.5000 - -0.3012 bias 2.0000 - 0.5349 bias 0.5000 - -0.1440 bias 0.0000 - -0.2157 bias
TOTAL 28.030821 26.735930 15.118773 11.580802 8.628771 2.711797 1.984490 0.926601 0.372188 0.243634