Poll Average Details- French President - 2007-04-22 18:00:00
The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window -
the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0.
If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals
in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively
be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus).
[TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed.
Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.
| Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal |
Nicolas Sarkozy | Ségolène Royal | François Bayrou | Jean-Marie Le Pen | Olivier Besancenot | Philippe de Villiers | Marie-George Buffet | Arlette Laguiller | Dominique Voynet | Frédéric Nihous | José Bové | Gérard Schivardi |
|---|
| Ipsos | 4/20 | X 1.00000 |
|
30.0000 - -0.0170 bias |
23.5000 - -1.1038 bias |
17.0000 - -1.5736 bias |
13.5000 - 1.8898 bias |
4.5000 - 0.4188 bias |
2.0000 - -0.2288 bias |
2.5000 - 0.8706 bias |
2.0000 - -0.2681 bias |
1.5000 - -0.1950 bias |
2.0000 - 0.8544 bias |
1.0000 - 0.0987 bias |
0.5000 - 0.1636 bias |
| CSA | 4/20 | X 1.00000 |
|
26.5000 - -1.7170 bias |
25.5000 - 0.3185 bias |
16.0000 - -2.5736 bias |
16.5000 - 0.2406 bias |
5.0000 - 0.9188 bias |
1.5000 - -0.7288 bias |
2.5000 - 0.5739 bias |
2.0000 - 0.7023 bias |
1.5000 - -0.8616 bias |
1.5000 - 0.3544 bias |
1.5000 - 0.1846 bias |
|
| IFOP | 4/19 | X 0.98333 |
|
28.0000 - 1.7282 bias |
22.5000 - -1.0973 bias |
20.0000 - 1.7310 bias |
13.0000 - -0.9238 bias |
4.0000 - -0.0203 bias |
2.5000 - 0.3093 bias |
3.0000 - 0.3098 bias |
2.0000 - -0.4847 bias |
1.5000 - 0.4142 bias |
1.5000 - -1.9562 bias |
0.0000 - -1.3154 bias |
0.5000 - 0.1712 bias |
| TNS Sofres | 4/19 | X 0.98333 |
|
28.0000 - -0.2667 bias |
24.0000 - 0.5959 bias |
19.5000 - 0.9264 bias |
14.0000 - 1.0251 bias |
5.0000 - 0.9188 bias |
1.5000 - -0.7288 bias |
2.5000 - 0.0111 bias |
1.5000 - 0.2114 bias |
1.0000 - -0.4264 bias |
1.5000 - 0.3544 bias |
1.5000 - 0.1846 bias |
0.0000 - -0.3364 bias |
| BVA | 4/17 | X 0.95000 |
|
29.0000 - -0.6550 bias |
25.0000 - 0.6269 bias |
15.0000 - -3.5736 bias |
13.0000 - 1.4049 bias |
5.0000 - 0.9188 bias |
3.0000 - 0.7712 bias |
3.0000 - 0.6449 bias |
2.0000 - -0.0183 bias |
1.0000 - -1.0283 bias |
1.0000 - -0.1456 bias |
2.0000 - 0.6846 bias |
1.0000 - 0.6636 bias |
| Louis-Harris | 3/24 | X 0.55000 |
|
27.0000 - -4.1788 bias |
27.0000 - 1.1278 bias |
20.0000 - 1.4264 bias |
12.0000 - 1.5572 bias |
3.0000 - -1.0812 bias |
1.5000 - -0.7288 bias |
2.0000 - 0.0739 bias |
2.5000 - 1.1714 bias |
1.0000 - -0.5705 bias |
2.0000 - 0.8544 bias |
1.5000 - 0.1846 bias |
0.5000 - 0.1636 bias |
| LH2 | 3/3 | X 0.20000 |
|
28.0000 - -1.1170 bias |
27.0000 - -0.4815 bias |
20.0000 - 1.4264 bias |
14.0000 - 0.0740 bias |
1.5000 - -2.5812 bias |
1.0000 - -1.2288 bias |
2.5000 - 0.5739 bias |
2.0000 - 0.5356 bias |
1.0000 - -0.5283 bias |
0.5000 - -0.6456 bias |
2.0000 - 0.6846 bias |
|
| TOTAL |
28.766032 |
24.508906 |
18.520743 |
13.034836 |
4.070632 |
2.222189 |
2.175918 |
1.803036 |
1.698221 |
1.546557 |
1.242324 |
0.334727 |