[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Mark Kirk Mark Kirk | Alexander "Alexi" Giannoulias Alexander "Alexi" Giannoulias | LeAlan M. Jones | Mike Labno | Lowell M. Seida | Stan Jagla | Susanne Atanus | Robert L. Zadek | Corey Dabney | Willie "Will" Boyd, Jr. | Shon-Tiyon "Santiago" Horton | Avner Nagar | Darren Raichart |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Public Policy Polling | 10/31 | X 1.00000 | 46.0000 - 0.0973 bias | 42.0000 - 0.9088 bias | 3.0000 - 1.0282 bias | 3.0000 - 1.0035 bias | ||||||||||

YouGov | 10/30 | X 0.98333 | 45.8000 - 0.0717 bias | 48.5000 - 1.3621 bias | ||||||||||||

Rasmussen Reports | 10/26 | X 0.91667 | 46.0000 - 1.6097 bias | 42.0000 - 0.4145 bias | 5.0000 - 1.6192 bias | |||||||||||

Anzalone Liszt Research (D) | 10/24 | X 0.88333 | 36.0000 - -2.4595 bias | 38.0000 - 3.5867 bias | 7.0000 - 1.6847 bias | 4.0000 - 2.5819 bias | ||||||||||

Pulse Opinion Research | 10/23 | X 0.86667 | 43.0000 - 1.6182 bias | 41.0000 - -0.2536 bias | 7.0000 - 1.8736 bias | |||||||||||

Market Shares Corp | 10/22 | X 0.85000 | 44.0000 - -0.3029 bias | 41.0000 - -0.1166 bias | 5.0000 - 2.0038 bias | 4.0000 - 1.3747 bias | ||||||||||

Mason-Dixon | 10/20 | X 0.81667 | 43.0000 - 0.8876 bias | 41.0000 - 0.3444 bias | ||||||||||||

Southern Illinois University | 10/10 | X 0.65000 | 37.3000 - -1.5962 bias | 36.8000 - 0.8155 bias | 3.3000 - 0.4227 bias | 1.8000 - 0.7199 bias | ||||||||||

Suffolk University | 10/3 | X 0.53333 | 42.0000 - -2.5107 bias | 41.0000 - 1.8265 bias | 4.0000 - 0.5644 bias | 3.0000 - 0.9650 bias | ||||||||||

Opinion Research Corporation (CNN) | 9/28 | X 0.45000 | 42.0000 - 0.4310 bias | 43.0000 - 0.8611 bias | 8.0000 - 1.3465 bias | |||||||||||

We Ask America | 9/13 | X 0.20000 | 38.6500 - 0.7827 bias | 36.3200 - -0.1522 bias | 4.1400 - 0.7078 bias | 2.1100 - 1.2509 bias | ||||||||||

TOTAL | 42.791054 | 40.540568 | 3.801382 | 1.807258 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |