[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Tom Corbett Tom Corbett | Daniel "Dan" Onorato Daniel "Dan" Onorato |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

YouGov | 10/31 | X 1.00000 | 51.1000 - 0.0717 bias | 40.3000 - 1.3621 bias | |

Muhlenberg College | 10/31 | X 1.00000 | 49.0000 - 2.0125 bias | 42.0000 - -1.1484 bias | |

Public Policy Polling | 10/31 | X 1.00000 | 52.0000 - 0.0973 bias | 45.0000 - 0.9088 bias | |

Quinnipiac University | 10/30 | X 0.98333 | 52.0000 - 0.1363 bias | 42.0000 - 0.3688 bias | |

Marist Institute | 10/28 | X 0.95000 | 51.0000 - -0.3584 bias | 44.0000 - 0.4625 bias | |

Rasmussen Reports | 10/28 | X 0.95000 | 52.0000 - 1.6097 bias | 43.0000 - 0.4145 bias | |

Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R) | 10/27 | X 0.93333 | 48.0000 - -1.4142 bias | 41.0000 - 1.5519 bias | |

Opinion Research Corporation (CNN) | 10/26 | X 0.91667 | 52.0000 - 0.4310 bias | 45.0000 - 0.8611 bias | |

Franklin & Marshall College | 10/24 | X 0.88333 | 51.0000 - -0.7416 bias | 35.0000 - 0.4126 bias | |

Ipsos-Public Affairs | 10/24 | X 0.88333 | 49.0000 - -21.0260 bias | 43.0000 - -19.3724 bias | |

Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R) | 10/12 | X 0.68333 | 48.0000 - 0.4956 bias | 37.9000 - -0.5209 bias | |

ccAdvertising (R) | 10/7 | X 0.60000 | 44.8800 - 4.4042 bias | 37.9700 - -1.7904 bias | |

Suffolk University | 9/27 | X 0.43333 | 47.0000 - -2.5107 bias | 40.0000 - 1.8265 bias | |

Pulse Opinion Research | 9/18 | X 0.28333 | 49.0000 - 1.6182 bias | 39.0000 - -0.2536 bias | |

Critical Insights | 9/16 | X 0.25000 | 38.0000 - -0.3271 bias | 37.0000 - 1.9814 bias | |

Municipoll Research | 9/16 | X 0.25000 | 46.4800 - 0.8419 bias | 38.2500 - 0.4551 bias | |

TOTAL | 52.238488 | 43.694563 |