Poll Average Details- IL US Senate - 2004-11-02 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Barack Obama Barack ObamaAlan L. Keyes Jack RyanJerry Kohn Arthur C. Brumfield Albert J. Franzen Mark Kuhnke Donald McArthur-Self Shaun Bill Kathy Campbell Marcus Hester Scott Doody Thomas R. Carlson Lowell M. Seida Orlando McDowell
Survey USA10/29X 1.00000   66.0000 - 0.4044 bias 27.0000 - 0.3780 bias                        
Research 200010/28X 0.98333   67.0000 - 1.1225 bias 25.0000 - 0.1377 bias                        
Richard Day Research10/21X 0.86667   70.0000 - 2.0170 bias 20.0000 - -2.3560 bias                        
Market Shares Corp10/19X 0.83333   66.0000 - -0.1166 bias 19.0000 - -0.3029 bias                        
Chicago Tribune9/20X 0.35000   68.0000 - 2.5360 bias 17.0000 - -2.3230 bias                        
TOTAL 66.273548 23.130726 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000