Poll Average Details- IL US Senate - 2004-11-02 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Barack Obama Barack Obama	Alan L. Keyes Jack Ryan	Jerry Kohn	Arthur C. Brumfield	Albert J. Franzen	Mark Kuhnke	Donald McArthur-Self	Shaun Bill	Kathy Campbell	Marcus Hester	Scott Doody	Thomas R. Carlson	Lowell M. Seida	Orlando McDowell
Survey USA	10/29	X 1.00000		66.0000 - 0.6566 bias	27.0000 - 0.3289 bias
Research 2000	10/28	X 0.98333		67.0000 - 1.1463 bias	25.0000 - 0.1379 bias
Richard Day Research	10/21	X 0.86667		70.0000 - 2.0170 bias	20.0000 - -2.3560 bias
Market Shares Corp	10/19	X 0.83333		66.0000 - -0.1166 bias	19.0000 - -0.3029 bias
Chicago Tribune	9/20	X 0.35000		68.0000 - 3.1934 bias	17.0000 - -2.7654 bias
TOTAL				66.148169	23.181241	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000